Archives: Weekly Market Outlook

Sitting on the Dock of the Bay

Keith Schneider | October 17, 2021

I am sure by now you and your family are feeling the effects of rising inflation.  It has manifested itself in just about every aspect of American life…rising food costs, building supplies, housing costs, energy and most of all, good ole’ bacon.  What is going on? The truest definition of inflation is when demand outstrips supply.   Inflation is insidious and affects all parts of society but has no greater impact than on lower and middle

Up, Up & Away…. But for How Long?

Keith Schneider | October 10, 2021

After a brief market pause, we got a pullback from short term oversold levels and saw stocks resume their upward trend, partially fueled by a much narrower, large-cap stock rally. This leaves the major indexes stuck between their 50 and 200-day moving averages and in warning phases. We also saw commodities (especially Natural Gas, Oil, and some soft commodities) and Crypto Currencies all continue their upward ascent with the latter making huge one day moves

Soft Commodities Firming and Potentially Explosive

Keith Schneider | October 3, 2021

Equity markets closed negative for the month of September led by the NASDAQ 100 (-5.5%) as US markets finally broke a multi-month winning streak. Meanwhile the US dollar continued to outperform it peers. In fact, it appears that investors prefer it  over the Chinese Yuan even though the US could default on its debt obligations. Bucking the selloff is DBA (Soft commodities). Currently it is the most explosive looking chart if it can clear recent

Evergrande Gap: Warning or Missed Opportunity?

Keith Schneider | September 26, 2021

Last week began with fears on an Evergrande (China’s leading property developer) debt default fueling a technically damaging gap down. The Monday morning gap put the SPY and QQQ well below their 50-day moving averages (DMA), the IWM well under its 200-DMA, and China’s large-cap ETF (FXI) at a new 52-week low. Global equity markets recovered quickly with the US equity benchmarks leading, and more specifically led by Grandpa Russel (IWM), which closed up +2.79%

Stranger Things

Keith Schneider | September 19, 2021

Stocks were mostly weaker, led by the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 which were both down about -0.8 % on the week. Several things are looming over the market… like the debt ceiling needing to be raised, which is no sure thing considering the bickering on Capitol Hill. Another longer-term issue that was revealed this week is that members of the Federal Reserve have potentially been trading their stock portfolios ahead of major policy

Never Forget

Keith Schneider | September 12, 2021

The market sold off this week as a result of the convergence of weak seasonals, poor momentum, eroding market internals, a very confusing message from the economic data, and a lack of clarity about what the Fed will do next. Plus, don’t forget the fact that Apple (the highest weighted component of key US Equity Indexes) lost an important legal issue regarding its app store, killing its stock which was down -5% on Friday. We

Growth Stocks (and Tech) keep hitting the high notes

Keith Schneider | September 6, 2021

Given the positive move of our risk gauges into risk on all the major Indices and given the recent leg up in some of the largest capitalization growth stocks, is this a new bullish phase up or an eventual repeat of 1999-2000? Entering the weakest period of the year, September-October, and our recent warning of the Hindenburg Omen (see August 30th update), we are fully participating in the market's up move, but we remain vigilant

Hindenburg Indicator Gaining Altitude Again

Keith Schneider | August 29, 2021

This week markets regained its footing with risk gauges improving while the Hindenburg Indicator increased its reading to ominous levels as well. Market internals improved across key equity benchmarks to best levels since mid-June, benefitting small caps (IWM/Grandpa Russel) the most, up over 5% for the week while bumping both 3 and 6 month returns to positive territory. Along that vein, gold also bounced and significantly improved its technical picture getting a tailwind from increased

The Chop Continues

Keith Schneider | August 22, 2021

Markets continue to chop during this seasonally weak period and have made no progress over the past 30 days. Price patterns of the key US Equity indexes are holding up at key moving averages, but there are signs of stress that should not be ignored. Small Caps (Grandpa Russell: IWM) which represent the broadest measure of the US economy touched the lowest levels of a 7-month trading range, and was down almost 2% for the

Wall Street vs. Main Street Divergence Hits Record Levels

Geoff Bysshe | August 15, 2021

As a result of the much-anticipated earnings season, which is now winding down… Last week, important players on Wall Street and main street hit new extremes in sentiment on both ends of the spectrum. As you’ll read below, if it wasn’t August, I’d say that they can’t both be right, and that means someone’s in for a big surprise. Both sides have very good reasons supporting their points of view. Fortunately for all the passive