Archives: Mish's Daily

Post-FOMC -What’s Next?

Mish Schneider | June 12, 2024

SUMMARY OF FED DECISION (Kobeissi Letter)

  • Fed leaves rates unchanged for 7th straight meeting
  • Officials raise 2024 inflation forecast from 2.4% to 2.6%
  • Median forecasts shows just 1 rate cut in 2024
  • Median forecast shows 100 bps of rate cuts

  • The Vanity Trade-Two Trade Ideas

    Mish Schneider | June 11, 2024

    Yesterday’s Daily mused about what will untie the Gordian Knot holding back the market from either crashing or rallying.

    While we wait, it feels like a great time to plan for future trades.

    I have been all over the “Vanity” …


    What Unties the Market’s Gordian Knot?

    Mish Schneider | June 10, 2024

    A Gordian Knot comes from Greece during Alexander the Great’s march.

    It has become a metaphor for a problem solvable only by bold action.

    Every investor is waiting for the next stat and the next stat.
    Each one is perceived …


    Precious Metals-Has Anything Really Changed?

    Mish Schneider | June 9, 2024

    While we never profess buying a falling knife, we do believe that the metals are probably setting up for a buyable dip this coming week.

    Why?

    Looking at the fundamentals, it seems nothing has significantly changed.

    The news story that …


    Start of a Market Correction or a Summer Rally?

    Mish Schneider | June 5, 2024

    On June 3rd I recorded a 20-minute video for StockchartsTV.

    The thesis is to explore whether we are at the beginning of a market correction or gearing up for a summer rally.

    Interestingly, I start with the Granddaddy of the …


    Dreams Really Do Come True-Swiss Franc

    Mish Schneider | June 4, 2024

    On March 26, 2024, I wrote a Daily called, “Last Night I Had a Crazy Dream-Swiss Franc”

    In the blog, I mentioned that,

    “I literally woke up to the words “Swiss francs.”

    So here I was at 4 am, checking …


    Long Bonds Rally-Should We Pay Attention?

    Mish Schneider | June 3, 2024

    After a huge down move that began in December 2021, the long bonds or TLT has had a few shallow short-covering rallies,

    but not much more than that.

    The “higher-for-longer” for interest rates narrative, coupled with higher inflation and the …


    Where Is the Economy Going?

    Mish Schneider | May 30, 2024

    GDP showing a slowdown of the consumer. However, consumer spending, like so many things in the macro right now, is nuanced.

    While some stores suffer poor earnings like Kohls, TJ Maxx thrives.

    While people spend more on what they need …


    Transports Are Crashing Without Breaking News

    Mish Schneider | May 28, 2024

    Once again, while semiconductors roared to new highs, Transportation as seen through IYT the ETF, sold off.

    Retail XRT closed marginally green after better than expected consumer confidence data.

    Regional Banks fell closer to the critical levels of support.

    Biotech …


    Pay No Attention to That Tran Behind the Curtain?

    Mish Schneider | May 26, 2024

    For the sake of redundancy and in case you are living under a rock and just came out to read my Daily, Nvidia (NVDA) and its ginormous beat on revenues, gave the market new life.

    Happily, our very own Sister …