High Q4 Expectations for Bitcoin

October 1, 2021

Cryptocurrencies: Daily Update

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The first few days of October are already looking reminiscent of last October for Bitcoin (BTC) and the cryptocurrency market. BTC is currently up more than 12% over the past 7 trading days and has regained the support of its 50-day Moving Average (DMA).

As of writing this, Bitcoin has already beaten the $49,000 level, with the major psychological resistance level at $50,000 as the next bull target.

After $50k is beaten, then $60k as the next major level… but what would be a realistic expectation for Bitcoin by year’s end? 

The popular Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model provides a macro view of BTC’s historical price action in relation to supply and scarcity. The S2F predicts $80,000/BTC by the end of 2021.

Stock-to-Flow ratios are typically used for Store-of-Value commodities (like Gold) to measure the available supply against the rate of new supply flowing into the market. As Bitcoin is considered to be a digital Store-of-Value with a finite supply capped at 21 million units, it is appropriate to use this type of ratio to forecast Bitcoin’s future price.

While we look for Bitcoin to beat the $50,000 level in the short term, remember to zoom out and watch the longer-term trend. The crypto market is volatile and fast, so we could see new all-time highs quicker than you may think.

Coins to Watch: Uniswap (UNI) to regain the 200-DMA, Stellar (XLM) to regain the 50-DMA 

Today’s Winners: Axie Infinity (AXS) +116% over the past 7-days to a new all-time high of $155, OMG Network (OMG) +82% over the past 7-days and currently at the highest level since April 2018

Today’s Losers: DeFi projects like Solana (SOL), Avalanche (AVAX), Cardano (ADA), and Polkadot (DOT) pullback 3-5% on the day, however, they appear to be consolidating at higher levels