High Q4 Expectations for Bitcoin

October 1, 2021

Cryptocurrencies: Daily Update

By Holden Milstein


The first few days of October are already looking reminiscent of last October for Bitcoin (BTC) and the cryptocurrency market. BTC is currently up more than 12% over the past 7 trading days and has regained the support of its 50-day Moving Average (DMA).

As of writing this, Bitcoin has already beaten the $49,000 level, with the major psychological resistance level at $50,000 as the next bull target.

After $50k is beaten, then $60k as the next major level… but what would be a realistic expectation for Bitcoin by year’s end? 

The popular Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model provides a macro view of BTC’s historical price action in relation to supply and scarcity. The S2F predicts $80,000/BTC by the end of 2021.

Stock-to-Flow ratios are typically used for Store-of-Value commodities (like Gold) to measure the available supply against the rate of new supply flowing into the market. As Bitcoin is considered to be a digital Store-of-Value with a finite supply capped at 21 million units, it is appropriate to use this type of ratio to forecast Bitcoin’s future price.

While we look for Bitcoin to beat the $50,000 level in the short term, remember to zoom out and watch the longer-term trend. The crypto market is volatile and fast, so we could see new all-time highs quicker than you may think.

Coins to Watch: Uniswap (UNI) to regain the 200-DMA, Stellar (XLM) to regain the 50-DMA 

Today’s Winners: Axie Infinity (AXS) +116% over the past 7-days to a new all-time high of $155, OMG Network (OMG) +82% over the past 7-days and currently at the highest level since April 2018

Today’s Losers: DeFi projects like Solana (SOL), Avalanche (AVAX), Cardano (ADA), and Polkadot (DOT) pullback 3-5% on the day, however, they appear to be consolidating at higher levels