We did not have to wait very long for the answer to last night's question after the Golden Cross-digestion and rally or game over? We love instant gratification, especially when positioned on the right side of the trend. Tomorrow the groundhog will make its annual appearance. Last February 1st, the S&P 500 rallied; then on February 2nd there was an inside day, followed by another 12 days of steady upside before the first major selloff of 2011 occurred. Let's see if Groundhog's Day lives up to Bill Murray's legacy.
S&P 500 (SPY) Truth is this did not get to last week's high 133.40. But unless it breaks 132.00 now, that may not mean much.
Russells 2000 (IWM) Alright I exaggerated when I said the target based on the high of the week ending August 5th was 81.00. The high was really 80.99 and today's high 80.90. Now, through that level no reason to see more unless it breaks 79.45.
NASDQ (QQQ) Overbought now on the weekly and daily Relative Strength Indexes. If first thinking of getting long at these levels, would venture to say a bit late. In fact, a close under 60.20 will be disconcerting.
ETFs:
GLD So unexciting compared to some equities, I got nothing.
XLF (Financials) 14.18 now the number to hold.
XRT (Retail) 56.55 has to clear to get his group exciting again
IBB (Biotechnology) From last night: "Needs to be the first kid on the block to take out the recent high 116.76 to keep the neighborhood cheerful." Jay-Z, Can I Get A...
IYT (Transportation) DOJI which means under today's low a bit troublesome.
XLE (Energy) Holding the 200 DMA by a fingernail. Inside day. Subs-Pivots positive therefore watch S1 70.69 to hold.
TLT (20+ Year Treasury Bonds) Still holding the gap higher from Monday unless it breaks lower than 118.55.
Longs: NOTE: Thank you Geoff for doing an amazing job trading and filling in today! X-one trade Geoff gave you yielded ½ ATR. LULU as well. Several of the trades from the other day yielded 1.5 ATRs for miniswing traders. GS got close to that target but not quite so holding a tail.
CAT Inside day and NR 8. Has the bearish engulfing pattern prior so must clear today's high even though pivots are positive and ultimately clear 114.00 to see another leg up. Risk 109.82 S1. Day to Mini
JPM Still has to clear last week's high 38.10 to look really good and if does will see what happens at the 80 monthly MA now at 40.75. Day to Swing
HOG Positive Pivots at 44.43 with risk 43.54 the 10 DMA. Must also clear the recent high to continue the move higher. But, with a good risk, could look at reversal or breakout since if it does clear, has 2011 high 46.88 then could press on to 60.00. Day to Swing
JWN Inside day with positive pivots after locking in ½ ATR from yesterday OR reversal entry. Max risk 49.20 now and would like to see it clear 50.00 for its next leg. All time high was made in 2007. 2011 high was 53.35. Day to Swing
TPX After the gap higher last week, been consolidating and holding the gap with positive pivots even with the late day selloff. Max risk 65.91. Must soon clear the recent highs 70.43 to get another leg up. There is trendline on the weekly chart that breaks out if closes the week above that price with a measured move to anywhere from 10.00 to 20.00 higher. Day to Swing
Honorable Mention: Pivots Positive OR Reversal Candidates: AAPL (Narrow Range 10) ASH (Risk 63.00) RAX (Got ½ ATR now risk 43.65) MOS (56.28 Risk) MHS (Risk 62.21) APH (Risk 54.50)
Shorts:
UA Featured as a short in Phases and Forecasts although has stayed firm thus far given market condition. Now, it gapped higher yesterday, then had a bearish engulfing pattern today with negative pivots tomorrow at 78.97. Max risk yesterday high 80.44. On daily see this as a possible right shoulder to a potential head and shoulders top although this has not fleshed out. Day to Swing
SODA Opened on the highs, closed on the lows and under the 160 EMA now risk at 39.21 provided it take out S1 37.54. The 50 DMA is a good target at 34.70 for now. Day to Mini
WTW Bearish engulfing candle and negative pivots at 75.52 with max risk yesterday high 77.32. Really needs to break under the recent consolidation low 74.27 to see another test of the 200 DMA 68.40. Day to Mini
DVN Negative pivots at 63.94 with risk 64.60. Must break the 50 DMA under today's low to see another 4.00 or so move down. Day to Mini
WPI Bearish Engulfing Pattern followed by an inside day with negative pivots at 59.10 with risk today's high. January low 55.00 which must break or just a quick miniswing on this. Day to Mini
Honorable Mention: OR High Failure DDS HLF (Narrow Range 25. Must break 57.45 Risk 58.16)
Goodnight!