Don't Miss The Most Bullish Quarter of The Next 4 Years

September 30, 2018

Weekly Market Outlook

By Geoff Bysshe


blankIt’s said that the market doesn’t like uncertainty, yet it’s also known to “climb a wall of worry”.

The market also tends to perform better when Washington D.C. is in a state of political ‘gridlock’.

This makes sense since an ineffective Congress could be viewed as creating a sense of ‘certainty’ that the status quo will prevail.

Considering these tendencies by the market, it would be easy to assume that the period around the mid-term elections would be a rocky and inconsistent time for stocks, because of the potential for unexpected changes.

However, the data suggests otherwise.

According to Oppenheimer & Co.’s technical analyst, Ari Wald, “Q4 of midterm years through Q2 of pre-election years have been the best nine-month stretch of the four-year U.S. presidential cycle since 1929,”

Not only has this period been the most bullish, it’s gains have also been quite significant. This is illustrated by his chart below.

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As you can see by the 3 quarters outlined in black, this period stands out.

In addition, you can see that the 4th quarter which contains the election, has been positive about 87% of the time with and average return of over 6%.

In fact, it’s the most bullish quarter of the entire 4 year election cycle based on both average gain and percentage of positive outcomes!

Of course, this doesn’t mean the market will go straight up, but it does put a different perspective on all the bearish spin the media tends to attribute to the ‘uncertainty’ of the mid-term elections.

Here are the areas of particular interest in the free and premium($) areas of BigView this week.

There will not be a video this week.

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