February 7, 2018
By Mish Schneider
The leopard stalks its prey and tries to approach as close as possible.
Small prey is eaten immediately.
Larger carcasses are dragged over several hundred miles and safely stored in trees, bushes or even caves. Larger prey is to be consumed later.
In the market, weak longs are like small prey and easily hunted and killed after huge overnight drops in price and early morning opening range failures.
Monday night (or early Tuesday morning), the futures pointed to a 1000 point lower opening.
The market did indeed open lower (but not by 1000 points).
While the leopard slept off his tummy filled with the weaker longs, the braver yet potential larger prey came out to buy that dip.
As a result, the market rallied over 550 points.
Today, NASDAQ 100 entered an unconfirmed warning phase. A second close under 160.48 will confirm that.
Furthermore, SPY, the Dow and the Russell 2000 could not improve from their warning phases.
Trained to buy every dip, smaller prey or weaker longs are plentiful enough to sate our hungry leopard again tomorrow.
Moreover, the market action also created plenty of large prey.
Once the leopard awakens, will he stalk the weak or will he hold out for the bigger prey?
Paraphrasing a big game hunter, because of the leopard’s smaller size he can conceal himself in places impossible to a tiger.
The insidious hiding places or reasons for the bulls to fear for their profits, mainly include the rising interest rate environment.
TLTs or the 20+ Year Treasury Bonds fell by over 1% today. Despite that, the Fed has given us mixed messages.
On the one hand, they claim their rate policy has little to do with the market.
On the other hand, they claim that should the market tank, it will impact their monetary policy.
Let’s go with what is rather than what will be.
Rates are rising-typically that puts pressure on the market.
The big game hunter goes on to say that the leopard’s need for water is far less.
The market needs water. Lots of it. So, while the longs troll for streams to drink from, their less thirsty predator lurks and waits.
Semiconductors (SMH), a topic I have covered a lot as “the bigger they are the harder they fall”, performed abysmally dropping over 2.5%.
Weak prey? Yes. Some could argue that SMH is large prey as well.
Lastly, the leopard’s demoniac cunning and daring, coupled with his stealthy disappearance when danger threatens, has no equal.
Although seemingly less likely after watching all but Regional Banks enter into a warning phase, perhaps our leopard will only find small prey or go hungry tonight.
Let’s just say that given the current dangers in our midst, best to stay thirsty and out of sight.
S&P 500 (SPY) 266-267 is pivotal. And if that breaks, consider the ultrashort SDS.
Russell 2000 (IWM) Yesterday’s potential reversal bottom did not pan out. Now, under 145, leopard food.
Dow (DIA) Tried hard to clear the 50 DMA but could not. Under 240, the leopard grows fatter
Nasdaq (QQQ) 158.35 is the weekly moving average that has not seen a week close below since November 2016. I’d make note of that.
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