April 19, 2023
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
Regional Banks (KRE) made a comeback during the session.
The price pierced the 44 resistance level and closed above the last 18 trading day’s range.
On March 6th, over a month ago, I wrote a Daily called, Retail and Regional Banks Will Call the Shots
At the time, KRE was trading at $60 and predates the short-lived banking crisis, but not by much.
That began happening on March 7th.
Now, with lots of bank earnings out of the way, and a rally in KRE, once again, the Fed could have bad timing.
On April 12, according to Fed documents, “fallout from the U.S. banking crisis is likely to tilt the economy into recession later this year.”
Maybe.
But maybe, with KRE holding and that potential bottoming pattern emerging, and with the indices rallying..
That feels great for now but comes back to bite later.
For now, let’s focus on the chart.
Momentum according to our Real Motion, says sideways with a slight uptick.
Plus, the red dots or momentum tracker is way closer to the overhead moving averages than the price is to its MAs.
Momentum must continue to improve. Should that clear the MAs, then we would expect KRE’s price to go up closer to 50.
That most likely will mean the SPY runs over the 420 level.
The 23-month moving average (see video below on my topic at the money show), shows potential business cycle expansion, everyone jumps back in the pool.
Awesome, right?
Projecting ahead-KRE has a long way to go to get back over the huge crash from the weeks of March 6 and March 13th.
However, this is a catch while you can market.
So for now, our Prodigal Son caught another break.
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Mish in the Media - All clips here
The Money Show-Intro to Talk 04-19-23
CMC Market Tesla, Gold, Oil, Gas, China 04-19-23
Business First AM on Tax Season 04-18-23
Final Bar Stockcharts Dave Keller 04-13-23
Twitter Spaces Wolf_Financial Former Pit Traders 04-13-23
CMC Markets 04-12-23
Yahoo Finance 04-12-23
Special Webinar on What Traders Can Expect in 2023 with Bob Lang and Mish 04-11-23
Rosanna RoPodcast 04-07-23
Making Money with Charles Payne 04-06-23
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Coming Up:
April 19 Closing Bell Cheddar TV-clip on 4-20
April 20 Benzinga Pre-Market Prep
April 24-26 Mish at The Money Show in Las Vegas-2 presentations and a book giveaway
April 28 Live Coaching Complete Trader
April 28 TD Ameritrade with Nicole Petallides
May 2-5 StockChartsTV Market Outlook
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ETF Summary
S&P 500 (SPY) Tight range to watch this week 412-415
Russell 2000 (IWM) 170 support- 180 resistance
Dow (DIA) Over the 23-month MA 336-impressive if holds
Nasdaq (QQQ) 312 support over 320 better
Regional banks (KRE) 44 now pivotal
Semiconductors (SMH) 258 resistance with support at 248
Transportation (IYT) Timely
Biotechnology (IBB) 130 major pivotal area-135 resistance
Retail (XRT) 58- 64 trading range to break one way or another
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