July 8, 2024
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
We have heard many discussions on whether small caps (Granddad Russell 2000 IWM) really matter for the market.
Here are a few talking points:
The interesting thing is that all these points are feasible and possible.
So where do we go?
Perhaps we can draw some conclusions from the daily chart.
Looking at Real Motion, the momentum has not cleared the 50-DMA (blue) since May.
So, the first thing we want to see is a substantial gain in momentum.
Secondly, IWM has underperformed SPY.
More importantly, IWM has not cleared the Bollinger Band or zero line in Leadership since 2023.
Hence, until we see some real Leadership IWM is rangebound.
Furthermore, the Russell 2000 IWM remains stubbornly in a caution or warning phase. The price sits below the 50-day moving average.
IWM needs two closes above the 50-DMA, and better still, the price needs to clear 205.
What conclusions can we draw right now?
Yeah yeah we love our Sister Semiconductors SMH and NVDA.
Nonetheless, we still cannot say for sure which scenario plays out-
Number 1- For 10 years IWM has underperformed, so who cares?
Or
Number 4- Small caps reflect the reality of poor economic growth and will eventually drag down the growth stocks as a recession is coming.
Educational purposes only, not official trading advice.
For more detailed trading information about our blended models, tools, and trader education courses, contact Rob Quinn, our Chief Strategy Consultant, to learn more.
-
Traders World Fintech Awards
-
Get your copy of
Plant Your Money Tree: A Guide to Growing Your Wealth
Grow Your Wealth Today and Plant Your Money Tree!
"I grew my money tree and so can you!"- Mish Schneider
-
Mish in the Media-Want to see more? All clips here
Kitco News Article Gold was the winner in the 2024 Presidential Debates 06-28-24
Yahoo Finance Mish talks about how JP's uncertainty makes some investors uncertain as well and why 07-02-24
Financial Sense Jim Puplava Mish discusses the debate and all thing AI/Commodities 06-29-24
CNA Asia First Why This Week is Critical to Next Market Direction. Mish in Singapore calms investors with smart practical advice 06-25-24
Stockpick.app Where is the money-and why we love silver still 06-24-34
Business First AM More on the inside sectors and why we like South Africa ETF 06-25-24
Coming Up:
July 9 Making Money with Charles Payne
July 9 StockchartsTV
July 16 Wealth 365
August 2 Yahoo Finance
Weekly: Business First AM, stockpick.app
ETF Summary
S&P 500 (SPY) 5400 support 5600 resistance
Russell 2000 (IWM) 197-205 tightest range to watch
Dow (DIA) 40k resistance
Nasdaq (QQQ) Another new all-time high
Regional banks (KRE) Watching the range 45-50 CAREFULLY
Semiconductors (SMH) 260 -280 range
Transportation (IYT) 67 hurdle to clear 64 support to hold
Biotechnology (IBB) 140 pivotal resistance
Retail (XRT) 200 week moving average support at 72.75. Needs to recapture 74.50
iShares iBoxx Hi Yd Cor Bond ETF (HYG) Pointing more risk on for now
Every day you'll be prepared to trade with: