Last Night I Had a Crazy Dream-Swiss Franc

March 26, 2024

Mish's Daily

By Mish Schneider


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I imagine that you, like me, look forward to reading about the markets that are rarely covered.

For example, yesterday we looked at Truth Social (DJT), which rallied nearly 50% today. That might go down as the most fascinating stock story-how a worthless company catches all the green lights in 5 days.

Maybe all the buzz I read constantly about everything markets stayed in my subconscious.

Maybe this can explain why last night I had a dream.

I literally woke up to the words “Swiss francs.”

So here I was at 4 am, checking the charts of Swiss Francs, both in the futures market and then with the ETF FXF in multiple timeframes.

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The first thing I noticed in the futures market is that CHFUSD (Swiss Franc to the US Dollar) has been in a freefall for a while.

There is some support from the lows in October at 1.08. That would not give us a compelling enough reason though, to heed my dream as prophetic in any way.

The second chart is far more interesting of FXF the ETF, on a daily timeframe.

Look at the volume patterns over the last couple of days. The average daily volume is around 32k. Last Friday the volume was 251k or 5 times the average.

The next day is was 152k. Thus far, on day of writing, we are back to the average.

However, the candlestick pattern is one of an inverted hammer doji. This can become important combined with the crazy volume as a blow off bottom.

Can become.

There’s more.

SNB had an interest rate cut, a big reason for the Franc’s recent tumble.

With research I read this, “The Swiss Franc has a reputation for being a safe haven or hard currency; it is often purchased during financial uncertainty due to its reliability and stability. Regularly used as a global reserve currency, the Swiss Franc is the sixth most traded currency in the world.”

Fascinating as the dollar strength right now has taken away some of its thunder, while many believe the US debt crisis will be the dollar’s ultimate downfall.

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So, I looked further into longer timeframes.

Note on the weekly chart of FXF the 200-week moving average (green) coming into focus.

That MA has held for about a year.

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On the monthly chart, FXF is moving closer to the 23- and 80-month moving averages.

Even more importantly, the price has been above both MAs since a year ago.

If you put this all together, we will watch for signs of a reversal bottom.

And happily, we have some valuable moving average lines in the sand as risk points.

Perchance to dream…

 

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Mish in the Media - All clips here

Stockpick.app Mish covers why being a bull makes sense and yet, what signs we should keep our attention to 03-25-24

Business First AM Market strong, quants long and DJT new issue 03-25-24

CNA Asia First Where will money rotate after the FOMC-Mish talks to Singapore 03-20-24

The Morning Run BFM 89.9 Malaysia Business radio What’s next for interest rates, Fed policy and why we need to watch long bonds 03-20-24

Business First AM Mish checks the charts on commodity prices 03-20-24

CMC Markets Ahead of FOMC-here’s a tutorial on how to trade the dollar/yen, gold, oil, silver and natural gas 03-20-24

Schwab with Nicole Petallides -Mish covers her predictions and why solar should be watched along with commodities and long bonds 03-15-24

Real Vision Daily Briefing Mish goes through all the factors to watch for the stocks and commodities next big moves 03-18-24

Stockpick.app Mish schools viewers-clear and concise guide to the signs we are keeping our eyes on this week and why 03-19-24

Financial Sense Jim Pupluva Mish and Jim talk about the signs of inflation and recession-both are still on the table 03-15-24

Money Show with Mike Larson Listen as Mish’s predictions all come true from February in Las Vegas 03-14-24

Business First AM Identifying Warning Signs and why Alibaba 03-13-24

StockchartsTV Your Daily Five 5 Top Stock Picks + 2 With Great Potential-Mish keeps on the theme of leaders continue to lead 03-12-24

Benzinga Pre Market Prep Market thoughts and why Mish likes certain key instruments that could be the next big winners 03-08-24

 

Coming Up:

April 3 Final Bar Stockcharts TV

Weekly: Business First AM, CMC Markets, and new to us-stockpick.app

 

ETF Summary

S&P 500 (SPY) 520 pivotal

Russell 2000 (IWM) 202 support

Dow (DIA) 385 support 400 resistance

Nasdaq (QQQ) 440 the pivotal area

Regional banks (KRE) 45-50 range

Semiconductors (SMH) 223 support near term

Transportation (IYT) 68 area support

Biotechnology (IBB) 140-142 resistance 135 support

Retail (XRT) 73 support 77 resistance to clear

iShares iBoxx Hi Yd Cor Bond ETF (HYG) 77 big number to hold. Over 78 risk ON

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