September 20, 2011
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
SPY Fundamentally mixed concerns/hopes. Greece, Italy, in fact all of Europe concern. FED doing something grand, hope. Technically, as we saw low volume on the way up, such was the case today on the late day drop. Could not get through last week's high at 121.97 and could not drop enough to test 119.50. All in all, still in the massive trading range with a bear phase very much intact.
DIA Close over 115 encouraging and a close under 112.70 confirmation of current bear phase in play
QQQ Closed under 57.00 but not the 200 DMA at 56.26. Worked off the overbought condition as we remain in an accumulation phase. 55.20 area now convergence of several EMA and DMAs as well as the 50 weekly moving average. If that breaks will be safe to say it bounced to the neckline where it broke down from in late July and failed. Otherwise, over 57.00 encouraging.
IWM Bearish engulfing pattern on low volume and break of Monday's low so once again, the weak sister of the 4 indexes. Back over 70.60 good sign otherwise, more downside if breaks 68.00.
ETFs:
GLD**Inside day and incredibly susceptible to any FED decision or non-decision. If FED does Operation Twist, rates will rise and GLD will be more expensive to hold. If they do a quantitative easing or something like that with rates remaining low, expect more rally, especially over the adaptive moving average illustrated in chart.
SLV Inside day. The much better short should metals start to fail since under the 50 DMA at 39.25 right near today's high. However, over that and today's high, will resume the bull phase with lots of room to the upside.
XRT Checked out RETS which is the ultrashort for retail (I wrote RETL which is the bull). But volume is way too little so I passed. But it was a great short with the rare occurrence of the price converging with a death cross on the moving averages.
XLF If the fins will recover it will be triggered by a close over 13.00.
IYT 85.00 weekly resistance and 81.45 now support (low today 81.60).
TLT Through 155.20 could see move to 116.50 next.
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