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Where is the Market Finding Joy?

March 20, 2023

Mish's Daily

By Mish Schneider

Is it here in the Russell 2000 (IWM)?

Check out the weekly chart.

The 50-week moving average just crossed below the 200-week moving average.

That is bearish.

The Leadership Indicators shows IWM well underperforming the SPY

Bearish

The Real Motion Momentum Indicator has moment in a bearish phase as well, albeit with some signs of oversold conditions.

This weekend’s Outlook pointed out that “There are far too many disjointed economic scenarios playing out. These are all meaningful problems that could have a serious impact on the financial condition of the U.S.”

Our Risk Gauges are Risk-Off for the most part.

Even with Monday’s rally, sectors like Retail (XRT) and Transportation (IYT) are weak.

So where is the joy?

Our Sister Semiconductors is the bright spot.

Opposite of her Granddad IWM, she is in a weekly bullish phase.

SMH outperforms the SPY.

One caveat-the Real Motion momentum indicator is in a bearish phase with momentum just skimming along the 50-WMA. Keep that in mind.

Add our Big View Indicator and it says:

Risk-On

Value stocks (VTV) have gotten crushed last week when compared to Growth stocks (VUG) on a relative basis. VUG has reclaimed a bullish phase similar to the Nasdaq, while VTV is now underperforming relative to the rest of the US Market. (+)

Neutral

US Indices are showing a confused picture, with QQQ reclaiming a bullish phase on both a daily and weekly timeframe. In contrast, the other 3 key indices continued to sell off and close under their 200-day moving averages and in Distribution phases. (=)

What happens next?

Perhaps SMH is telling us that whilst IWM holds the December lows, the market can still rally.

Or perhaps, “tech saves the day” trade, whilst still the future, got a bit too ahead of itself and the FOMC can bring everything tumbling down.

Everything except inflation. We still believe that will persist.

Here is a look at this week’s economic data on tap.

For more detailed trading information about our blended models, tools, and trader education courses, contact Rob Quinn, our Chief Strategy Consultant, to learn more.

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