How To Use The Model

Welcome to the ETF Complete Portfolio!

This page is the best place to begin. Here you'll find:

  • A brief overview of what this strategy is all about
  • Precise instructions on how to trade the model
  • A tool for you to track your trading
  • And more!

Introduction to the ETF Complete Portfolio

The ETF Complete Portfolio uses trading signals generated by a quantitative strategy that MarketGauge developed based on the concept of trend strength and persistence. When we use the term 'model' we are describing the combination of a way of selecting ETFs with a systematic way to calculate our ranking and manage our trades.

The three component models of the portfolio all contain both long and short ETFs that give you broad exposure to sectors, countries, bonds, indicies, and global macro assets.

The model takes the historical and real time ETF prices and our proprietary Trend Strength Indicator (TSI) to rank the ETFs and generate trading signals. By following these signals combined with using either of our trade management techniques outlined below, we have demonstrated that it is possible to generate trading profits well above a buy and hold index strategy.

QUICK START: How Our Model Portfolio Executes the ETF Complete Portfolio

How much capital are you going to put towards trading the model?

This is your own personal decision based on your financial situation and personal risk tolerances. If you are just getting started, we recommend that you start small or paper-trade the positions until you are comfortable with how the model works. You can add capital or change the amount you are trading with at any time (this will, however, cause your total performance to differ from the model). Once you have determined your starting capital, you can use the “Start a Portfolio” page to determine your precise positions.

Starting a Portfolio

The easiest way to get started is to setup a portfolio using the calculator and sample portfolio we provide in the Tools section. When you setup your ETF Complete portfolio this way it will closely follow the performance of the model portfolio. Note, there will be some discrepancies in your performance vs. the model's due to share rounding, slippage, and commissions.

For a detailed description of how to get started and access to the simple tools to help you determine your initial position sizes go to the "Starting a Portfolio" section in the "Tools" area of the member area.

Easy to Follow Trailing Stops and Targets

The ETF Complete Portfolio uses easy to follow trailing stops and targets.  They are a little different for each of the sub-models.  The Sector and Global Macro models use an initial 15% stop and 25%, 60%, and 100% targets. The Country model uses a 10% stop and 15%, 25%, and 40% targets.

Note: the stop was only hit in 5% of all trades.  The majority of the time we exit a trade because of a position rotation or trailing stop.

At each target you will take off 1/3rd of your initial position.   When the final target is reached, you will be in all cash for that position until a new position is recommended.

After the first target is reached, we begin a trailing stop.  The current stop will be available in the “Open Positions” and notifications any time it changes will be sent out in the daily emails.

Tracking Your Trades

We have created a free Excel spreadsheet for you to download that will help you easily track your trading (simulated or real) of the ETF Complete Portfolio alerts.  The tool can be found on the “Trade Tracking Tool” link on the right side navigation bar in the member area to get this tool.

Maintaining A Portfolio

At the close of market every day, the strategy processes the trading information and generates the next set of signals. These results may generate new exit or entry signals, or tell us to stay in the current positions.

It is not uncommon to experience the passing of a week or two without any changes to the portfolio.

If an exit signal is generated on a day when there is not an entry signal to replace the position that has been sold, then that percentage of the allocated portfolio remains in cash until an entry signals is generated. There is nothing wrong with holding cash as part of this strategy.

Trading Alerts & Position Updates

If any changes are being made to the Model Portfolio we will send you a trading alert, via email and text messaging (if you elect to receive text messages). All alerts are also recorded in the “Position Updates” section of the website which you can navigate to in the right side navigation area of this page.

The alerts will be issued in the evening and they will contain all the information you need to know to execute the trade on the open of the following trading day.

As you can see the rules are very simple and structured. They enable you to receive these alerts with plenty of time for you to easily make preparations or even place the orders to execute at the open of the next trading day.

Managing Your Text Alerts

If you would like text alerts in addition to email alerts, simply go to the “Manage Mobile Alerts” link in the navigation panel on the right side of this page and register your phone number.

Monitoring The Strategy Portfolio

You can easily see any recent trade alerts in the “Position Updates” section of the website. This page is updated anytime a trade alert is issued.

The Model Portfolio area of the website tracks the current open positions, recently closed positions, historical performance metrics, and daily changes in all the models components. The data on this page is update at the end of each trading day.

More Than One Way To Utilize The Model's Alerts

You can maintain a consistent portfolio from these trade alerts, or simply use them as excellent trade ideas for independent trades.