Focus List For Trading on 12/20/2016
Longs STJ FEYE MSFT AGR KSU NUE DDD TSLA FDX GOOGL NFLX AAL ALK BID CHKP COF FCX SPY Shorts FOX EBAY EL MCK CRM ACAD AMGN KORS MNST NWL TRIP WYNN
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Focus List 10/20 - All Market Watch With Inside Days & Inside Daily Ranges
Due to the fact that we have a live training session tomorrow (Thurs) I’ll keep this brief.
The market watch 4 all had inside days today and as noted in my last Focus List they have all marked out a pretty significant 4-6 day range. After such a strong run up over the last few weeks, it should not be a surprise that they consolidate. The high and the low of their respective ranges should be considered considerable resistance and support.
Because of the such well defined daily range, I’d be careful not to put too much weight in determine bias on the pivot stack if it is not much higher or lower than the prior day. The Q’s will have a significantly lower pivot tomorrow, but the rest will have pivots very close to the prior day. The pivot number will be just as important, but you may want more a neutral bias until S1 or R1 are broken. This means you can look for reversals off of either one.
The financials held up well today, don’t let them out of your site.
Longs
RHT
TSCO
PVH
CSTR
TPX
KSU
JCP
Over R1
RAX
NTES
MRX
INTU
CELG
Reversals
DLTR
JWN
BIIB
SPG
TJX
HUM
Shorts
VRTX
BLK
HBC
TAP
BIDU
Focus List 10/17 - Look at the Q's, But don't forget the others
The QQQ is now positively stacked and sloped on the 10, 20 and 50-day moving averages. Plus it's over the 200-day MA and the high of the last 2 months of consolidation. In short, its trend has turned up and it's broken out!
The other three markets are still in the process of trying to reverse their down trends as measured by the 10, 20, and 50 day MA's and they have not broken out of their ranges, and remain well below their 200-day moving averages.
What NOT to do right now - pick a top. Many indicators are reading "overbought", but price action must rollover for the market to go down. Watch the price action closely, and know that you don't need to pick a top. Our rules for getting aggressive on the short side enable us to adjust very quickly, so there is no reason to fight the short term up trend. We will get a pivot pattern and or a daily bar pattern that will warn of a top, or at worst our rules relating to S1 will keep us from getting hurt by any surprise on the downside.
Until we get signals to get aggressively short there is plenty to do in determining whether to chase breakouts or buy dips. Because markets are in overbought territory I would hesitate to chase breakouts in the market watch 4 unless they are all in sync. Be very careful of divergences at the highs. Instead look for bullish OR reversals as long as they are over S1.
Focus Longs
XRT
GLD
TJX
CERN
REGN
HUM
FSLR
OR reversals
TIF
NEM
ORLY
SHKP
SPG
VMW
CF
CELG
SGEN
DTE
ABT
MOS
Focus Shorts
PEP
URBN
OPEN
IDCC
Focus List 10/14 - Trading Breakouts and Reversals - Dojis & Compression
I could just say, today's answer is in the 9/20 "Advanced Pivot Patterns" training video.
In the 9/20 video (available to subs only) I reveal the same patterns that exists in all but the Q's after Thursday's trading. The current stage of the pattern is one of a warning that upside momentum may be waning and more importantly, if we get an opening range breakdown below the pivot in the IWM, SPY or DIA it should be respected, if not shorted.
For those of you who did not see the video the condition I'm referring to is one in which the market spend the majority of the day trading below the pivot after a series of days in which the pivot has stepped up and not been tested.
The other condition I've been writing about as the markets climb is that of the markets not trading below the prior daily low. All 4 did that yesterday but managed to recover. A close below a prior low would be a significant negative event.
If all this sounds bearish it is, IF... the markets trade lower. Specifically, the basic key reference points of support are now more important indicators of downward momentum becoming a reality. Subscribers should know how the patterns should line up for the more significant breakdowns. Everyone should be focused on the OR's, the floor trader pivot, S1, and the prior day's lows.
If the market does not go down as measured by these points, then the important question for more upside is, have we seen enough compression to have a trend day up. Here's how I see it:
SPY - No. It's been a sloppy wide two days resulting in not only 2 dojis, but would also form one big doji if the two days were combined.
DIA - No. Same condition as SPY.
QQQ - Yes. The last two days have been wit in the same range and tight relative to the 10-day ATR.
IWM - Yes. The same condition as the Q's
In the prior Focus List I said I'd only consider trading reversals on the long side in the indexes if there was a divergence. We got that in the Q's and it was a worthy, but not stellar long trade. For Friday, I'd still consider trading reversals on the long side, but I'd be even more cautious if below the reference points mentioned above.
As for trading breakouts, I'd consider long or short under the right Opening Range conditions and so long as the market watch are not diverging. Once exception to this is the condition would be if the market gaps higher, followed by a SPY or IWM breakdown below the floor trader pivot. That's probably worth following with or without the Q's in the breakout down.
GOOG's earnings having been well received and pushing markets higher in the pre-market so there is a good chance we will start the day on a positive note.
Focus Longs
MOS
NEM
ABT
DTE
SRE
SGEN
CHKP
VMW
POT
AAPL
CELG
CF
Focus Shorts
FDX
VRX
APA
RIG
KSS
CLX
Focus List 9/12- SPY's On The Edge
I put a lot of weight on the condition of the SPY because the world watches the S&P 500 with a lot of respect. On Friday it closed right on a major inflection point – a bear flag trend line that has been touched 7 times.
BUT.
I always consider all four indexes – SPY, DIA, IWM & QQQ. And when I do that I don’t come to the same conclusion I would with a sole focus on the DIA and SPY.
I’ve included all the charts below. Note the DIA has closed below the flag trend line so follow through would be very bearish. The SPY did not close below the line, but sits right on it so trading below Friday’s low would be very bearish.
The IWM has not broken its trend line, and the Q’s have a very messy flag but have broken their trend line. The Q’s however are the strongest of the 4 and have a very distinct wedge which you’ll see on the chart (the trend line is dashed). Based on its pattern I’d focus more on the wedge than the trend line.
In all 4 I’ve marked the key level below which would indicate a real serious breakdown. This level is the 9/6 low in every index.
The only thing with a positive reading is the fact that the 10-day MA is over the 20-day, and only in the Q’s can we say they are sloped up. So the bulls have the trend line from the lows and the 9/6 low to trade against from the long side.
Long Focus List
The long list is primarily here to have a few stocks to watch on the long side. Should the market surprise us with a big move up.
AAPL
ALXN
AMZN
CDE
CBOE
DG
DLTR
ED
GDX
GLD
GMCR
HANS
JAZZ
MRX
ORLY
SLW
TLT
WFM
BIDU
SINA
Short Focus List
In most cases these stocks are at or below their 8/5 lows.
KSS
APA
FSLR
WHR
ECA
GS
JPM
SWK
NFLX
SLB
DRI
Focus List - 8/15: Last week's range is key
Welcome to the new members who joined us late last week!
For both new and existing members, we are transitioning the Focus List back from it being provided by Mish’s Market Minute. You will now see it both as an email and posted in the Mastery Program Area of the site in the Focus List section. We’ll try to get the email out the evening before the market opens.
It is always recommended that you put the list in a HotScans Portfolio so you can more easily follow them. There are numerous training videos in the Mastery program that show you how to quickly filter for specific conditions like reversals, breakouts and gaps.
Market Comments.
If you have not already read the weekly commentary in our Market Outlook you should look at it before the open on Mondy. It will give you a broader perspective on why we think there is potential for the rally of the last 2 days to continue, but the longer term trend is still very negative.
From the day trading perspective the 4 market watch charts (SPY, QQQ, DIA, and IWM) fell so quickly that they left the potential for a similar move up if they clears key resistance levels. For all four I’d consider the key resistance levels to be last week’s high (Friday’s high) and the 10 day MA.
The Q’s are one to watch closely because they have rallied back up to the major inflection area of the swing lows put in during the June decline. This would be the best place for the bears to take a stand and push the markets back down. On the other hand, the fact that they are right back into the big trading range which defines the year thus far makes them the strongest relative performer so a break higher is worth following too.
We had a good trading week last week by focusing on only a few instruments and often the index ETF’s. This week may be more of the same. Remember, in volatile markets risk management and good execution is critical so a narrow focus and fewer shares is usually a good idea.
Long Focus:
The overall market condition should be stable to up in order to get too interested in the longs. With any of these long stocks there an OR reversal is preferable for managing risk, and remember we want it to be over S1 if the pivots are positively stacked and over the Floor Trader Pivot if the pivots are not positively stack. In either case, be very careful with anything trading below Friday’s low.
GLD
SLV
TLT
SLW
AAP
CAVM
CERN
CBS
NFLX
IBM
JAZZ
GMCR
MA
AAPL
BIDU
CMG
CF
COG
DECk
HANS
WPI
Short Focus
The market could very easily resume its decline and we’ll be watching these reverse ETF’s to take advantage of any significant decline.
SKF
FAZ
TZA
TWM
LQD
Focus List - 7/19, SPY bounce off key support, Q's way ahead
I've put charts of only SPY's and Q's today below. The key point is SPY found support an the prior daily range, and the Q's never came close to its equivalent range and in fact is looking like it will open over the key daily level 57.85 (high of 2 inside day range). Both are in a position to break the trend lines from the highs. This doesn't mean its all clear to move higher. We need to see if we can close above these levels! And AAPL earnings could dramatically change the Q's after today's close. But I want you to see this pattern developing.
The net result is, however, that if the Q's manage to pull the other 3 Market Watch indicators over their prior day highs, there a chance we could rally today.
I've also posted HotScans screen shots of stocks that reported earnings as of the prior close.
~Long Focus~
NTES
CF
WYNN
JAZZ
SWN
AAPL
HOG
~Other Long Charts of Interest~
PVH
AMZN
TGT
VMW
LULU
POT
IBM
ACOM
FCX
SINA
BIDU
SOHU
LVS
CRM
ANF
CVX
ALKS
HAL
~Short Focus~
DE
WHR
AAP
MET
GS
~Other Short Charts Of Interest~
SNDK
VECO
SMG
SLXP
MHS
PAY
Stocks with earnings ranked by Dollar Move UP:
Stocks with earnings ranked by Dollar Move DOWN:
Focus List 6/30 - QQQ & IWM have recovered 50% of the correction
Seems hard to believe, but it's true, the Q's and IWM are at a the 50% line from the highs to the lows at the 200-day MA. Aside from this being a good point to expect the market to take a break and consolidate, it is the end of the month and a holiday weekend ahead.
I'd expect the market to consolidate, with a bias to the upside. This means long side OR reversals on strong stocks that are not too extended would be my preference. On the short side, stocks that have not rallied with the market and start to rollover would be my preference.
~Long Focus~
CE
RHT
~Other Long Charts of Interest~
UNH
AET
BEAV
CRM
CERN
BIIB
AMZN
PLCM
ACOR
TSLA
DISH
NFLX
OVTI
TIF
GR
~Short Focus~
WBMD
MTL
CREE
~Other Short Charts Of Interest
GS
WSM
WAG
CHD
UHS
SNDK
CREE
IR
LRCX
FLS
MHS
FLR
Focus List 6/29 - Two strong days & now a big gap highert
Markets are gapping higher and well over the daily consolidation. This comes after two very strong days and all of which has been fueled in a large part by the expectation that Greece would pass an austerity plan. As of right now it seems as though the plan has passed.
So the news is out. This gap could go either way, but I would now look for support on dips.
There are so many stocks that look good on the long side, but many have already had moves I would not want to chase. The long list generally has stocks that have either only just broken a key daily resistance level and therefore good candidates for another good breakout day or an OR reversal. Ort they are stocks that have good consolidation so if they breakout they could run nicely.
The shorts are weak stocks that generally could be sold high or lower, but I would not be eager to short a strong market.
One last point - THE SMH has really under performed. If it rolls over this would be a sign that the market could get weak.
~Long Focus~
CE
CRM
BEAV
RHT
JCP
~Other Long Charts of Interest~
CERN
BIIB
AMZN
PLCM
ACOR
TSLA
COG
DISH
HLF
NFLX
OVTI
TIF
VHC
GR
UNH
ILMN
IBM
AMGN
~Short Focus~
I don't have a favorite
~Other Short Charts Of Interest~
WBMD
GS
SWN
WSM
WAG
CHD
UHS
SNDK
Focus List 6/13 - After 6 down weeks don't assume anything
The market's decline has been steady and calm. For me this is bearish action. The Q's and IWM's are near their 200-day MA, and by a number of measures - RSI, McClellan, up/down volume, etc. we are near oversold levels, so there are reasons to anticipate a bounce. However, I like to see some evidence of strength or big capitulation before I anticipate a bounce.
Being down so steadily for so long, I'd prefer to sell strength, and limit trading on the long side to stocks that have good support on the daily chart.
~Long Focus~
GS
~Other Long Charts of Interest~
A
ILMN
VECO
TSLA
VHC
CF
POT
BBBY
OXY
COG
AET
UHS
UNH
GR
ORLY
GS
~Short Focus~
DO
~Other Short Charts of Interest~
AAPL
DO
ALTR
ATI
FLR
DECK
MGA
BIDU
LVS
ETN
CAT
NOC