Active Investing Edge Mentoring for August 31, 2026
TITLE: Bearish Follow-Through, Bond Weakness, Semiconductor Support, and Tactical Entries in Apple and Palantir (08-31-2026)
VIDEO SUMMARY: (FIRST POV Geoff)
Geoff assessed Friday’s weak follow-through after the Federal Reserve speech, emphasizing that SPY remained relatively resilient while bonds, TLT, gold, and semiconductors signaled pressure from higher-rate expectations. He identified SMH’s support near 350, 340, and 336–340 as important bearish thresholds, while framing the Thursday–Friday range as the principal short-term market test. Geoff explained that SPY and RSP still allowed for an orderly correction, but QQQ and IWM looked more vulnerable, especially with bonds breaking lower and VIX rising. He reviewed sector reactions, noting weakness in industrials, transportation, biotechnology, and much of the market beyond the Magnificent Seven. Tactically, Geoff demonstrated opening-range breakouts and reversals using pivots, VWAP, prior lows, and moving averages. He outlined risk management for Apple, Amazon, and Palantir, including scaling exits and defined stops, while treating XLF, XLV, gold, and GDX more selectively. He concluded with a bearish bias but advised probing only quick, well-defined trades if the market recovered its opening range.
SESSION HIGHLIGHTS:
- [00:00:00] Friday Follow-Through and Intermarket Signals: Geoff explains why Friday’s reaction was unfavorable, comparing SPY with TLT, gold, and semiconductors. He uses those intermarket signals to frame higher-rate risk and justify reducing exposure after failed futures continuation.
- [00:11:22] Index Ranges and Semiconductor Risk: Geoff identifies the Thursday–Friday range as the key market test, then contrasts SPY and RSP resilience with QQQ and SMH vulnerability. He defines support and breakdown levels while keeping the outlook cautious rather than uniformly bearish.
- [00:16:42] Sector Reactions and XLF Management: Geoff reviews 30-minute sector responses after the Fed speech, highlighting broad weakness outside the Magnificent Seven and relative strength in financials and energy. He also explains scaling out of XLF near resistance and raising the stop.
- [00:26:31] Opening Levels, Pivots, and Opportunity Report: Geoff evaluates the opening pressure through Friday lows, pivots, TLT support, VIX, and Real Motion. He introduces the Opportunity Report’s green highlights and active-trade labels as a practical way to prioritize timely setups.
- [00:41:21] Apple, Amazon, and Selective Stock Setups: Geoff demonstrates opening-range breakout and reversal plans for Apple and Amazon, with VWAP, pivots, prior lows, and scaled stops defining risk. He then reviews refiners, Merck, Palantir, and Snowflake, favoring confirmation over rushed entries.
- [00:57:42] Bonds, Gold, GDX, and Falling-Knife Risk: Geoff returns to weakening bonds and explains why persistent TLT pressure makes stock entries less comfortable. He uses Real Motion divergence, VWAP, 200-day support, and ATR-based stops to assess gold and GDX dip-buying possibilities.
- [01:18:02] Bearish Bias and Final Trade Filters: Geoff notes that SPY and QQQ continue making lows while SMH, TLT, and VIX provide mixed evidence. He favors CrowdStrike and Palantir only if the market turns, concluding that quick stops are appropriate but longer-term swing entries are not.
