Written by Forrest Crist-Ruiz This past week dip buyers saved the market from breaking lower. Retail (XRT) and Regional Banking (KRE) sectors have cleared back over resistance from their 50-Day moving averages followed by the Biotech (IBB) clearing back over its 200-DMA. However, the small-caps Russell 2000 (IWM) and Semiconductors (SMH) are still underneath their 50-DMA. Luckily, they are holding support from their respective trading ranges. Moreover, SMH is back within its trading range from

When you know how to read market action with the Opening Range you can see when and how another market is influencing your trades (for better or worse)! Put another way; you can also see when inter-market relationships are “working” or changing. For example… On Friday, the QQQ got off to a very bullish start when it gapped higher out of a consolidation pattern on its 50-day moving average. It looked like a perfect setup

Last week we discussed that after new highs in the Dow and S&P, the NASDAQ100 has been “stuck in first gear” and that the Fed is stuck between a “rock and a hard place.”  We’re seeing 1970s’ style inflation being ushered in by easy money from Central Banks throughout the world. Soft commodities got a bit ahead of themselves and are currently in a process of some mean reversion, but the metals market held up

Written by Forrest Crist-Ruiz Wednesday, the market continued the prior days' sell-off. This has placed the overall market trend in a pivotal area as more sectors begin to look weak. This can be seen in Mish’s Economic Modern Family which consists of one index and 5 important sectors. Currently, the Russell 2000 (IWM), Retail (XRT), Semiconductors (SMH), and Regional Banking (KRE) are in cautionary phases, with the Biotech space (IBB) sitting in a distribution phase.

The stock market is currently in an extremely bullish mode fueled by a "bubble" inside the market that's unsustainable and unpredictably bullish. Like any bubble… The heights to which it will push stock prices are unpredictable. However, unlike most bubbles… It may be predictable. This is the third time that this specific type of bubble has developed since 2000.In each of the last two occurrences, there has been an identifiable tipping point at which this

This week’s move to new all-time highs in both the S&P500 (SPY) and the Dow industrial (DIA)masked deteriorating underpinnings as both the IWM and the QQQ lagged. Values stocks led the run-up once again while big cap NASDQ stocks remain stuck in first gear. In fact, the once leading NASDQ100 was down -1.12% for the week, and is lagging on year-to-date performance by more than 6% against other key equity indexes. Our Alpha rotation model

Written by Forrest Crist-Ruiz Tuesday, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), Russell 2000 (IWM), and S&P 500 (SPY) gapped lower followed by a rally. One of the most important indices to gap lower was the teach heavy index QQQ. This is important because big tech companies were the first to lead the rally created from the pandemic back in March of last year. With tech leading the charge higher, it has also been a cause for worry

Every four years a simple time frame defined by the date of the presidential election creates an Election Range in most markets, ETFs, sectors and individual stocks. This Election Range defines inflection points that enable you to anticipate when the market will trend higher or lower in a meaningful way. Anticipating which direction the market will move is simple, and very powerful for identifying big trend trades. Below you’ll find an instructional video explaining the

Due to our recent relocation (we sold our home and moved to another over the past two weeks) this week’s video and weekly highlights are now available. We are sorry for the delay and this week’s shorter edition.   Here are this week’s latest highlights: Risk Gauges moved from bullish to neutral. Momentum on the daily charts is questionable but has not failed yet on the 4 key indices. Look for a swing failure on

Written by Forrest Crist-Ruiz The Russell 2000 (IWM) and the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) both broke their 50-Day moving averages. Meanwhile, Transportation IYT printed another new all-time high. This shows the market's current indecision and choppy nature. The market's uncertainty may be related to inflation that is set to increase beyond 2% going into 2022. Another factor within the inflation realm is the decreasing value of the U.S dollar (UUP), which is not far from this

When a leading market sector sells off hard, traders should take note to avoid getting surprised by a broader market sell-off. Even better than simply noticing an important sector reversing, would be to be to anticipate the move in time to avoid it or profit from it.On Monday, the Semiconductor ETF (SMH), a recent market leader, was one of the hardest hit sectors in the market’s decline. In this post you’ll discover how you could

Last week investors were whipsawed with financially and emotionally taxing news and price action. Yes, I'm referring to the news of President Biden proposing a doubling of the capital gains tax. The market reaction was swift, decisive, and ugly, but as you'll read below, there was a silver lining. And the capital gains tax news was just the beginning… Goldman Sachs released a note saying the "reopening trade has peaked." Some areas of the market

Written by Forrest Crist-Ruiz Friday, Non-farm payrolls were announced with a disappointing 266,000 jobs created compared to the roughly 1 million that economists had predicted. However, the gap in expectations did not result in a market selloff. This could be showing that investors are giving more weight to the Feds reaction to the report than the report itself. With that said, let us look at Mish’s Economic Modern Family on a weekly basis to filter

Happy Independence Day! This July we're going to focus on how and why this month, which begins the second half of the year, can be used to set you up for a great 2019. This video is a crash course in how to consistently profit with my 3 favorite MarketGauge indicators, by catching explosive trades in every market condition! You don't need to start with all 3, but I'll show you how they each work,

Last week saw a lot of assets and indicators go up yet again. This is a theme that the market will likely continue to grapple with for the next several weeks or months because we are in the midst of a battle between three very influential “ups”. 1. Earnings 2. Inflation 3. Asset prices There seems to be widespread agreement that these are all rising, and in the near-term, will continue to rise. Another uncontested