Is September scaring you enough? After all, the month started out shaky and ended the first week worse than it began. Does this mean we are headed for a much bigger fall? Some analysts are saying that we can expect weakness and chop until the election. When we examine the weekly charts, we see a return to August lows possible. We see a return to May lows as a gift. We will go through the

The Sharpe ratio is a crucial metric for evaluating risk-adjusted returns in the world of investment and portfolio management. Named after Nobel laureate William F. Sharpe, this ratio helps investors understand the return of an investment compared to its risk. If you're looking to optimize your portfolio's performance, learning how to maximize the Sharpe ratio can be a game-changer. In this article, we'll explore what the Sharpe ratio is and provide strategies to help you

Welcome back readers.  Hope you weathered the market storm this past week as we started off September with a big down move. Last week we wrote about the new highs (blue skis) but also the possible September swoon that often occurs this month.  We highlighted the past four Septembers and their consecutive negative performance months.  If you have not yet read last week’s Market Outlook or wish to reread it, you can get it here.

Yesterday, we talked about exercising caution when trading on adages. Plus, we warned you to be careful not to become too extreme in sentiment. Then, I pointed out how the “inside” sectors were outperforming and perhaps suggesting things aren’t as bad in September as the media wants you to believe. The first chart is SPY or S&P 500. A few things worth mentioning. SPY sits on its 50-daily moving average. While momentum remains in a

Are you feeling the pressure to supercharge your retirement savings? You're not alone. Many of us are juggling career demands, family responsibilities, and the ever-present need to secure our financial future. If you're looking for a way to take your investment strategy to the next level, it's time to explore the world of alpha modeling. In this post, we'll dive into what alpha modeling is, how it's used in the investment world, and how a

Welcome back subscribers and loyal readers.  Hope you have had a good and profitable week in the markets and in life.  We closed out yet another positive month of returns for 2024 as investors are encouraged seeing the softening occurring in the economy which will likely give the Federal Reserve room to lower rates at their upcoming September meeting. Wishing you and your families a happy and healthy Labor Day Holiday. I grew up in

By now I am sure you have heard how horrible September usually is for the markets. Indeed, the start of September looks a lot worse than it did at the end of August. Nonetheless, be careful trading on adages. And be careful not to become too extreme in sentiment. NASDAQ is down, true, but Granny Retail XRT is trying to hold around the 50-DMA. Transportation IYT is well above the 50-DMA and holding the July

Navigating the stock market's ups and downs is always intimidating, no matter how long you've been investing in your retirement. Even the most experienced investors find themselves puzzled by fluctuating stock prices that don't always seem to mirror earnings reports or financial forecasts. But there are other clues you can use when determining the value of a stock. In a recent discussion, Mish Schneider highlighted an interesting aspect of the market that often eludes traditional

Welcome back readers.  We are glad you have joined us.  We hope that you are enjoying these longer summer days accompanied by the recent positive weeks in the stock market. “The time has come for policy to adjust. The direction of travel is clear.  My confidence has grown that inflation is on a sustainable path back to 2%.”  These were the words that Jerome Powell used on Friday at the annual conference in Jackson Hole,

Each week (sometimes more often) I write notes for the various producers in the media. For this long weekend, I am offering them to you as food for thought. In the overall macro theme, I am sticking to this for time being: Stagflation -Fed can’t fix it-With a huge reduction in rates, that will spike inflation and with a small reduction in rates, it will not do much to help the economy grow. The latest

Market corrections are a natural part of the investing landscape, often viewed with apprehension by both new and seasoned investors. Understanding how to navigate these periods effectively is crucial for anyone looking to maintain and grow their investment over time. In this post, we will explore essential strategies that can help turn the inevitable market downturns into opportunities for portfolio growth and resilience, inspired by insights from Geoff Bysshe at MarketGauge. How to Make Sense

Welcome back readers.  Thank you for a few minutes of your time to uncover some important takeaways on the markets and the economy.  While we cannot accurately prognosticate what the markets may do going forward, we have been on the “right side” of our observations and suggestions throughout 2024 in this weekly outlook. The last two weeks, even with a negative market, we provided plenty of reasons why you might want to stay on the

Those of you who read my predictions know that I am long term bullish in alternative energy and in electric vehicles. Looking domestically, recent price cuts in EVs have spurred new buyers. According to Bloomberg, a growing trend across the U.S., including in Tesla's hometown of Fremont, shows used EV sales jumping 70% in the year's first half, according to Cox Automotive. Simple economic formula is that when supply exceeds demand, that leads to lower

Small cap stocks might not grab headlines like the tech giants, but they play a critical role in the investment landscape. These companies typically have a market capitalization between $300 million and $2 billion and offer a chance to outperform larger institutional investors through their growth opportunities. But how do you take advantage of market movements when it comes to small cap stocks? This post delves into how these underdogs can become leaders in the

Good to have you back readers.  It has been a volatile and exciting week in both the markets and at the Olympics.  I recall the old ABC Wide World of Sprorts adage, “Spanning the Globe and bringing you the Thrill of Victory and Agony of Defeat”. Kind of sums up the past 10 days in sports and the markets. Depending on the different market segments, the Dow, S&P 500 and NASDAQ are all down from