Active Investing Edge Mentoring for September 18, 2026
TITLE: Post-Fed Market Clarity, Bond And Oil Signals, Selective Technology Leadership, And Opening Range Trade Setups (09-18-2026)
VIDEO SUMMARY: (FIRST POV Geoff)
Geoff analyzed the market’s reaction to the Fed announcement, emphasizing that the rebound began intraday rather than appearing as an unexpected next-day gap. He viewed the V-bottom, improving policy clarity, bond stabilization, and leadership in selected technology groups as constructive, while warning that crude oil remained a significant risk because of supply concerns and geopolitical escalation. Geoff compared the S&P 500, Nasdaq, RSP, Russell, SMH, IBB, XBI, and MAGS to identify areas showing relative strength and areas still vulnerable to higher rates. He explained that traders should let price action override fundamental assumptions, use pivots, moving averages, support, and opening-range behavior to define entries and stops, and avoid forcing trades when SPY and breadth weakened. Geoff favored selective setups in technology, semiconductors, Hood, Intel, AMD, and other leaders, while stressing patience, flexible position management, and confirmation from bonds and broader market participation.
SESSION HIGHLIGHTS:
- [00:00:00] Fed Reaction And The V-Bottom: Geoff explained why the market sold off around the Fed announcement before reversing intraday, arguing that the developing V-bottom and greater policy clarity created a more credible foundation for a possible move higher.
- [00:06:51] Index Structure And Bond Confirmation: Geoff compared the S&P futures, Nasdaq, and QQQs, distinguishing a messy consolidation from a clean correction. He then used bonds, support, and long-rate behavior to define the levels that would confirm or undermine the bullish outlook.
- [00:13:18] Crude Oil Remains The Main Risk: Geoff examined USO and crude oil against worsening supply and geopolitical headlines, but stressed that traders should follow price action rather than defend a fundamental opinion. He identified a possible rollover near 158 to 160 as an important warning.
- [00:22:04] Rate-Sensitive Breadth And Market Leaders: Geoff reviewed RSP, Russell, MAGS, SMH, IBB, and XBI to show how higher rates were affecting market breadth. He favored less rate-sensitive leaders, but wanted SMH to reclaim and hold its 50-day moving average.
- [00:34:58] Sector Scans And Emerging Candidates: Geoff used ranking and industry-group scans to identify strength in biotechnology, semiconductors, aerospace, agricultural inputs, software, security, and hardware. He applied support, extension, and breakout criteria before adding candidates to the watch list.
- [00:54:58] Intraday Weakness And Opening Ranges: Geoff assessed SPY, QQQs, SMH, RSP, bonds, pivots, and short-term Real Motion after the open. Because several indexes broke lower from their opening ranges, he advised patience and avoiding purchases of the weakest areas.
- [01:02:45] Hood, Intel, And Rate-Response Setups: Geoff evaluated Wolf, Hood, Intel, AMD, and related stocks by asking whether the Fed reaction improved their technical position. He outlined disciplined entries around opening-range levels, VWAP, support, and adaptable stops rather than chasing strength.
- [01:20:10] Semiconductor Breakouts And Closing Outlook: Geoff compared semiconductor names including NVIDIA, Qualcomm, AMD, Intel, and SanDisk, favoring stronger trends and pullback entries. He concluded that RSP, SMH, bonds, and index closes needed to confirm a constructive setup into the following week.
