Active Investing Edge Mentoring for October 5, 2026
TITLE: Rising Yields Test Small-Cap Support as Bonds, Market Breadth, Earnings, and RealMotion Setups Come Into Focus (10-05-2026)
VIDEO SUMMARY: (FIRST POV Geoff)
Geoff framed the week as a test of whether small caps and the equal-weight S&P 500 can stabilize while rising yields pressure the broader market. He identified IWM near its 200-day moving average and RSP near prior highs and its own 200-day area as key support, while warning that meaningful breakdowns would raise risk. Geoff noted that market-implied odds of an October rate hike had fallen, and that the 10-year yield was near technical support, but cautioned that a break could accelerate yields higher. He described earnings, economic growth, and a possible pause in hawkish Fed sentiment as potential sources of relief, while emphasizing that confirmation mattered. For tactical signals, Geoff watched closes and follow-through above short-term averages in IWM, RSP, TLT, and IEF, alongside SPY and SMH. He also discussed crude oil, RealMotion screening, position management in Merck, and breakout levels in individual stocks.
SESSION HIGHLIGHTS:
- [00:00:00] Small-Cap and Breadth Support: Geoff highlighted IWM’s 200-day moving average and RSP’s nearby support as tests of market breadth. He allowed for some room below IWM’s average but said meaningful breaks in both funds would make the correction more dangerous.
- [00:07:20] Bond Yields and Fed Expectations: Geoff connected the rapid rise in yields to a more hawkish Fed outlook, while noting that October hike odds had eased. He saw technical support in the 10-year yield area, but warned that a break could bring a faster move higher.
- [00:17:31] Growth, Earnings, and Confirmation Signals: Geoff weighed the resilience of economic growth and upcoming earnings against higher rates, including pressure on industrials through XLI. He outlined confirmation levels in IWM, RSP, TLT, and IEF, and stressed that a pause or follow-through mattered more than an assumed rebound.
- [00:30:17] SPY Strength and Crude Oil Risk: Geoff described SPY’s flag breakout and watched whether it and SMH could hold their 10-day averages, while noting USO’s inverse relationship with SPY. He viewed crude momentum as rolling over, but did not make an oil decline necessary for a market bottom.
- [00:40:25] RealMotion Screens and Stock Risk: Geoff used RealMotion phases and divergences to screen beaten-down stocks, discussing Iridium, Rocket Lab, and other setups that still needed breakouts or confirmation. He also reviewed Merck’s weakness versus Moderna and described reducing Merck exposure if its decline persisted.
- [00:50:52] Audience Stocks and Large-Cap Levels: Geoff assessed audience-requested names and large caps, remaining cautious on Virgin Galactic and identifying levels to reclaim in Google, Amazon, and Robinhood. He contrasted those weaker charts with Apple’s stronger trend before closing the session.
