Active Investing Edge Mentoring for October 9, 2026

October 9, 2026

Active Investing Edge

By Geoff Bysshe

TITLE: Bonds Cushion AI Volatility as Geoff Maps Index Pivots, Selective Strength, and Amazon Options (10-09-2026)

VIDEO SUMMARY: (FIRST POV Geoff)

Geoff framed the market’s rebound after an AI-led selloff around improving demand for bonds, noting that strong 30-year and 10-year Treasury auctions supported TLT and suggested that market stress remained contained. He contrasted pressure in influential AI and semiconductor names with resilience in equal-weight RSP, emphasizing that weakness confined to a few large stocks could limit broader damage. Geoff mapped pivots and prior-day levels across SPY, QQQ, IWM, RSP, and futures, warning that opening-range failures could trap buyers while rebounds through resistance would matter. He assessed crude oil’s trend and identified selective strength in stocks including Amazon, Palantir, Adobe, ASML, and Datadog. Geoff also demonstrated using scans to find stocks that held up relatively well. For Amazon, he explained a long-dated, low-delta call approach, with a defined stock-based risk level and a longer-term thesis. He closed by balancing market skittishness around earnings against resilient breadth and support from bonds.

SESSION HIGHLIGHTS:

  1. [00:00:00] Bond Strength and the AI Selloff: Geoff linked the rebound to strong Treasury auctions and demand for TLT, while distinguishing AI-stock weakness from broader-market stress. He used RSP’s resilience to explain why concentrated declines need not trigger an equally severe index selloff.
  2. [00:09:04] Pivots, Opening Ranges, and Crude: Geoff mapped pivot support across major indexes and futures, explaining how opening-range breaks can trap buyers. He also assessed crude oil’s trend structure and highlighted the importance of SPY’s prior high and bond-market support.
  3. [00:20:06] Semiconductors and Individual Stock Setups: Geoff compared semiconductor weakness with selective strength in names including NVIDIA and networking stocks, while noting pressure in Intel and Apple. He discussed risk controls and possible entries in Amazon, Merck, and Moderna.
  4. [00:33:39] Reading the Broader AI Narrative: Geoff argued that an OpenAI-related concern did not by itself establish a collapse in the wider AI buildout, and stressed checking which stocks resisted the selloff. He also introduced work on earnings-date scanning and stock commentary tools.
  5. [00:41:37] Scanning for Relative Strength: Geoff demonstrated using prior-day lows, ATR-relative closes, trend phases, and industry groups to surface resilient stocks. His examples included Palantir, Adobe, and ASML, with ASML standing out against peers in semiconductor equipment.
  6. [01:03:54] Market Reversals, Datadog, and Visa Risk: Geoff evaluated possible QQQ and SMH opening-range reversals, then connected market context to individual setups such as Google and Datadog. For Visa, he explained how targets, ATR-based risk, and trailing stops depend on a trader’s holding style.
  7. [01:19:45] Space Stocks and Exit Decisions: Geoff found the space group technically weak and advised caution on new entries, while comparing support levels and relative chart quality in Satellite and Rocket Lab. He framed exits around the trade-off between selling near support and risking a deeper decline.
  8. [01:25:24] Amazon Calls and the Market Close: Geoff explained his Amazon call selection, using lower delta and longer duration for a swing-trade thesis while defining risk through the stock. He closed by weighing SPY and RSP strength against SMH weakness and earnings-season uncertainty.

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