Active Investing Edge Mentoring for October 19, 2026
TITLE: Bond Strength, Broad-Market Resilience, And Tactical Entries In Semiconductors And Mega-Cap Technology (10-19-2026)
VIDEO SUMMARY: (FIRST POV Geoff)
Geoff explained that rising bonds alongside pressure in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq can signal risk aversion, but strength in the equal-weight RSP would make this pullback less alarming than a broad breakdown. He said sustained declines across the major indexes and RSP, especially with TLT rising, would be a more serious warning; crude oil’s direction also mattered as a headwind or tailwind. Geoff viewed SMH’s sharp decline as potentially needing consolidation rather than necessarily marking a bear-market start, while identifying key support, the 10-day moving average, and confirmation from RSP. He used pivots and opening-range reversals to frame conditional entries, warning against bottom-picking beneath the range. Geoff then assessed sector leadership and individual stocks, emphasizing relative strength during corrections. He outlined selective setups in Microsoft, Apple, AMD, and MAGS with defined stops, and suggested scanning for inside days and stocks trading above the prior day’s high while avoiding overly extended entries.
SESSION HIGHLIGHTS:
- [00:00:00] Bonds, RSP, And Market Risk: Geoff weighs rising bonds against resilience in RSP to distinguish a potentially buyable pullback from a broader breakdown. He also tracks crude oil and key support levels, advising caution until price action confirms direction.
- [00:07:02] SMH’s Pullback And Pivot Setups: Geoff reviews SMH’s weekly decline, noting that a sharp move near the highs may need time to digest without ending the trend. He uses support, moving averages, and opening-range behavior to define what would strengthen or weaken the bullish case.
- [00:15:38] ETF Levels And Intermarket Confirmation: Geoff checks SPY, QQQ, RSP, SMH, TLT, and USO against pivots and prior lows, then considers real-motion signals and the VIX. He favors confirmed strength and tight risk controls over bottom-picking below the opening range.
- [00:25:10] Sector Leadership In A Correction: Geoff compares sector groups, noting resilience in IBB and XLV while monitoring XLI, IYT, XLF, and XBI. He also watches the MAGS names and JPM for evidence that leadership is holding up during market weakness.
- [00:29:58] Selective Setups In Microsoft And Apple: Geoff highlights Microsoft’s relative strength and potential breakout, while requiring confirmation around resistance and weighing stops against its average true range. For Apple, he considers an opening-range breakout only with market support and a clearly defined stop.
- [00:38:32] Live Breakouts, MAGS, And Scans: Geoff evaluates opening-range setups in RSP, SMH, AMD, and Apple, then identifies relative-strength patterns in Amazon and other technology stocks. He gives a conditional MAGS entry with a stop and demonstrates scans for inside days and stocks above the prior high.
