Active Investing Edge Mentoring for October 28, 2026
TITLE: Fed Inflection Points, Crude Risk, and Opening Range Plans for Semiconductors and Biotech (10-28-2026)
VIDEO SUMMARY: (FIRST POV Geoff)
Geoff framed the session around the Federal Reserve’s expected rate decision, Chair Warsh’s comments, and Google and Microsoft earnings, while emphasizing that price reactions at key levels mattered more than predicting outcomes. He compared the S&P futures, Nasdaq futures, SMH, bonds, crude, and equal-weight RSP, identifying support and consolidation zones and noting that a failed breakdown followed by a reclaim could support a bullish interpretation. Crude’s hold above breakout support remained a potential headwind for stocks, while RSP’s recovery suggested breadth could persist unless bonds and major indexes weakened together. Geoff reviewed prior-day opening-range reversal logic and applied pivots, moving averages, VWAP, ATR, and chart inflection points to entries, stops, and target zones. He discussed QCOM position management, potential setups in CAI and ARQT, and watchlist names across biotech and semiconductors. His tactical emphasis was to avoid blind entries around Fed news, define risk, scale or trail stops, and wait for confirmation.
SESSION HIGHLIGHTS:
- [00:00:00] Fed, Indexes, Bonds, and Crude: Geoff assessed the S&P and Nasdaq futures, SMH, bonds, crude, and RSP ahead of the Fed and major earnings. He focused on consolidation boundaries, failed breakdowns, and how crude or bond weakness could alter stock-market risk.
- [00:20:04] Pivots and the SMH Breakout: Geoff mapped potential intraday support using prior-day pivots and moving averages, then assessed SMH’s breakout. He explained how the 546–540 area could serve as either a pullback entry zone or a clear point to exit if support failed.
- [00:30:10] Opening-Range Reversal and Sectors: Geoff revisited the prior session’s opening-range reversal, explaining how the pivot, day low, and 200-day moving average created a favorable risk structure. He also reviewed sector strength and weighed biotech breakouts against the risk of trading before Fed news.
- [00:38:07] QCOM Entry, Stops, and Targets: Geoff explained his QCOM entry above VWAP, why relative strength versus SMH mattered, and how he considered staged exits and a stop below support. He also described using chart-based target zones and raising stops rather than automatically selling into strength.
- [00:59:03] CAI and ARQT Trade Plans: Geoff assessed CAI’s breakout and ARQT’s biotech flag, setting potential buy zones, inflection points, stops, and targets with ATR and chart levels. He distinguished a normal pullback from a weakening breakout and cautioned against resting orders before the Fed.
- [01:17:06] Watchlist Setups and Position Risk: Geoff reviewed watchlist names including Dell, Moderna, Marvell, Amazon, Johnson & Johnson, and Visa, identifying levels that could confirm entries or trigger reduced exposure. He emphasized that existing positions and new trades require different risk decisions.
- [01:34:02] ARQT and Semiconductor Leadership: Geoff explained why ARQT’s extended weekly chart could still represent a base breakout, then compared semiconductor candidates including TSM, AMD, and Nvidia with SMH. He advised watching for confirmation and treated recovering infrastructure names as clues, not automatic buys.
