Active Investing Edge Mentoring for November 3, 2026
TITLE: Election-Day Market Inflection, Semiconductor Risk, Breadth, and Earnings-Based Trade Management (11-03-2026)
VIDEO SUMMARY: (FIRST POV Geoff)
Geoff framed election day as a major market inflection, advising caution rather than automatically buying the dip. He compared the SPY and QQQ price action around prior lows and the 200-day moving average, emphasizing that tested support and futures pivots mattered more than a single level. He noted that crude’s sharp decline had not helped stocks or bonds as expected, and that a renewed crude rally could weigh on equities. Geoff identified SMH as a key risk: a failure near resistance and the 200-day average could pressure indexes, making RSP’s ability to hold support especially important. He assessed Apple’s reaction to margin compression and lower revenue guidance, and reviewed earnings-sensitive setups in AMD and Qualcomm. Across individual stocks, he demonstrated using ATR-based stops, support, and staged trailing stops to manage positions. He also showed how screening strong-rated stocks for 10-day highs and proximity to 52-week highs could surface candidates such as Deere, while stressing that choppy conditions called for measured risk.
SESSION HIGHLIGHTS:
- [00:00:00] Election-Day Market Inflection: Geoff compared SPY and QQQ overnight rebounds with prior lows and the 200-day average, noting that QQQ showed a stronger tested bottom. He advised waiting for futures pivots and price confirmation rather than assuming the dip was buyable.
- [00:13:47] Pivots, Crude, and Market Breadth: Geoff assessed ETF pivots and the 200-day average as zones, not exact signals, then considered how crude and bonds might influence stocks. He flagged SMH’s resistance test and said RSP needed to hold if semiconductors weakened.
- [00:22:52] Apple, Semiconductors, and Trade Risk: Geoff evaluated Apple’s support after disappointing guidance and reviewed a Textron position’s revised stop and potential reward management. He placed semiconductor weakness in a longer-term correction context and warned that a breakdown could hurt the broader indexes.
- [00:36:33] Opportunity Report Setups: Geoff reviewed potential setups including CF, Lilly, Merck, AbbVie, Visa, Nasdaq, and Moderna. He distinguished attractive chart patterns from immediate entries, outlining support, breakout levels, and why he preferred waiting through election-related uncertainty.
- [00:49:56] Trend Transitions and Biotech Entries: Geoff considered Tesla alongside SpaceX, describing the importance of confirmation in both, and used IBB to demonstrate a pullback-and-resumption entry with support-based risk. He also noted chart-data problems that complicated some stock reviews.
- [01:01:21] Earnings Reactions and Position Management: Geoff reviewed intraday chop, Palantir’s negative reaction despite headline beats, and weakness around AMD and Qualcomm earnings. He also assessed Dell’s longer-term support and outlined Microsoft entry levels with ATR-informed stops.
- [01:18:54] Finding Strength with Simple Screens: Geoff demonstrated combining strong ratings, 10-day highs, and proximity to 52-week highs to identify relative strength. He highlighted Deere’s consolidation and breakout level, contrasted it with CAT, and noted insurance strength in Allstate.
- [01:26:21] Energy Themes and Trade Horizons: Geoff discussed Bloom Energy and data-center power demand as a possible area to watch, while stressing that the chart still needed confirmation. He explained drawdown versus loss and his use of ATR risk and progressively longer-term trailing stops.
