Active Investing Edge Mentoring for 06/30/2026

June 30, 2026

Active Investing Edge

By Geoff Bysshe

Video Summary:

Geoff stated that yesterday was a "really important day" on the daily charts, as it marked a successful "head fake" for the S&P 500 and a "picture-perfect reversal" for the Nasdaq at their respective 50-day moving averages. He noted that while the tech-heavy indices have faced downward pressure from their 10-day moving averages, the Russell 2000 (IWM) and Equal Weight S&P (RSP) are showing significant relative strength, with IWM not closing below its 10-day average since mid-June. Geoff explained that he is maintaining a short-term bullish bias as the market enters July—a historically strong month—expecting institutional "window dressing" to prevent dramatic downside moves through the end of the quarter. He further detailed a strategic shift in the "Space Basket," highlighting Rocket Lab's (RKLB) acquisition of Iridium as a potential long-term catalyst that provides a structural advantage for the company. Finally, Geoff demonstrated how to use "probing" entries with tight half-ATR stops in stocks like Dell and GE Vernova to capture the resumption of AI infrastructure trends while maintaining a high risk-to-reward ratio.

Session Highlights & Chapters:

  1. SESSION HIGHLIGHTS:
  2. [Market Head Fakes and 50-Day Support] (00:00:45) - Geoff analyzes the Nasdaq and S&P 500 reversals, confirming the 50-day moving average as a critical tactical floor.
  3. [IPO Sentiment Indicators] (00:15:30) - A review of SpaceX, Cerebras, and Quantinuum to gauge market appetite for speculative growth and high-sentiment names.
  4. [Rocket Lab and the Space Industry Pivot] (00:32:15) - Geoff discusses why Rocket Lab's acquisition of Iridium signals a structural shift in the industry and a potential move toward profitability.
  5. [The Math of Probing Entries] (00:54:10) - A tactical breakdown of using half-ATR "probes" to capture volatile trends in stocks like Dell, GE Vernova, and Affirm.

  6. VIDEO CHAPTERS:
  7. [Technical Reversals and Quarterly Outlook] (00:00:00) - Evaluating the bullish turn at the 50-day moving averages and the influence of end-of-quarter institutional positioning.
  8. [Broadening Breadth: IWM and RSP Analysis] (00:12:00) - Highlighting the continued outperformance of small caps and equal-weight indices as capital rotates away from mega-cap tech.
  9. [Speculative Growth Framework: SpaceX, Cerebras, and Quantinuum] (00:28:00) - Establishing support levels for recent high-profile IPOs and how their price action influences broader risk sentiment.
  10. [Sector Deep Dive: Space and Satellite Leaders] (00:45:00) - Analyzing the "Space Basket," including technical reviews of Rocket Lab (RKLB), Lunar, and Redwire following industry consolidation news.
  11. [High-Conviction Infrastructure: Dell and GE Vernova] (01:05:00) - Reviewing the resumption of trends in AI infrastructure and the technical requirements for entering these volatile leaders safely.
  12. [Financial Tech and Semi Outperformers] (01:25:00) - Evaluating the base-building in Affirm and identifying individual semiconductor stocks like Applied Materials (AAT) that show strength during index weakness.