Active Investing Edge Mentoring for 07/09/2026

July 9, 2026

Active Investing Edge

By Geoff Bysshe

Market Overview

Geoff stated that the market provided a "more impressive" reversal in the tech sector yesterday, as the Nasdaq and semiconductor sector (SMH) took out significant technical lows but immediately bounced back, while the S&P 500 (ES) successfully held support at the bottom of its consolidation box. He noted that the current "stair-step" recovery pattern in the S&P is centered around the 7565 level, which must hold to maintain a bullish bias as the market establishes its benchmarks for the July calendar range. Geoff explained that the intermarket relationship between bonds (TLT) and stocks reached a critical juncture at the S2 pivot level, where a bond reversal provided the necessary air for stocks to bounce after two days of intense pressure. He further detailed the importance of detecting internal divergences, specifically highlighting how the SMH’s refusal to make a new low while the SPYs were under pressure served as a primary indicator for the subsequent market-wide reversal. Finally, Geoff demonstrated tactical frameworks for individual setups, prioritizing Dell's potential breakout over the 445 level and identifying high-probability entries in CrowdStrike (CRWD) and the energy sector using "half-ATR" risk management.

Session Highlights

Session Highlights & Chapters:

  1. SESSION HIGHLIGHTS:
  2. [The 7565 Pivot in the ES] (00:03:15) - Geoff explains why the S&P 500 must hold above this specific level to confirm a "stair-step" breakout pattern rather than returning to chop.
  3. [The S2 Pivot Strategy] (00:10:45) - A technical breakdown of why markets rarely close below the second pivot level (S2) for two consecutive days and how it signaled the bond market bottom.
  4. [Detecting Bullish Divergences] (00:13:30) - Analyzing why the SMH holding its opening range while the Spies made new lows was the "recipe" for yesterday’s high-conviction reversal.
  5. [Half-ATR Risk Management] (00:32:15) - Geoff walks through the math of using scaled stops in Dell and CrowdStrike to maintain exposure while strictly limiting downside risk.

  6. VIDEO CHAPTERS:
  7. [Market Tenor & Yesterday's Bullish Reversal] (00:00:00) - Reviewing the "impressive" bounce in the tech-heavy indices and the critical support boxes for the major futures.
  8. [Intermarket Correlation: Oil, Bonds, and the S2 Pivot] (00:15:00) - Analyzing the interplay between TLT reaching exhaustion levels and the subsequent relief rally in equities.
  9. [Sector Deep Dive: Solar (TAN/FSLR) and Nvidia Analysis] (00:28:00) - Evaluating weekly technical setups in solar and why Nvidia requires more duration before a high-conviction entry.
  10. [Momentum Scans: Dell, CrowdStrike, and Cybersecurity] (00:45:00) - Technical reviews of high-flying tech names and setting price targets for potential multi-day runs.
  11. [Healthcare & Energy Rotation: Managing Risk in LLY and MPC] (00:55:00) - Identifying retracement entries in energy leaders and keeping a tight stop on the Eli Lilly breakout.
  12. [The July Roadmap & Closing Tactics] (01:05:00) - Summarizing the constructive market action in RSP and IWM and setting the game plan for the remainder of the week.