Summary: Risk conditions remain broadly negative as markets decline across the board with weak internals, poor breadth, and global equity pressure. Stable volatility and resilience in bitcoin suggest underlying support, though the overall environment points to continued caution with a potential for a near-term reversal if oversold signals reverse.

Risk On

• With the weakness in gold and strength in high yield bonds, the risk gauge is showing a surprisingly strong risk-on reading. (+)
• Despite the indexes hitting new recent lows this week, volatility failed to break out of its recent ranges or the highs set on March 6th. (+)

Neutral

• Rates were strong with the Fed’s decision to remain firm among geopolitical uncertainties around the conflict in Iran. (=)
• Bitcoin held up remarkably well. (=)

Risk Off

• Volume patterns remain weak. (-)
• Markets were down equally this week across the board, between -2% and -2.5% and all are negative year-to-date. 3 of the 4 are down around -5%. (-)
• All sectors were down with the exception of energy and financials. (-)
• Energy led the biggest market moves higher this week, while foreign equities and metals were the largest laggards. (-)
• Market internals were weak across the board with the cumulative advance-decline having one of the biggest moves lower in quite some time. If the McClellan Oscillator can take out the highs from earlier in the week, that could be an early reversal signal.  (-)
• The new high new low ratio trended lower without looking oversold. (-)
• The color charts (moving average of stocks above key moving averages) is negative across the indexes and timeframes. (-)
• Value is outperforming growth as both slid and growth is now in a distribution phase. (-)
• The modern family trended lower across the board, though semiconductors are still holding up relatively well. All members are in warning or distribution phases. (-)
• Foreign markets were hit worse than the U.S. with developed foreign markets crossing below its 200-Day Moving Average.(-)
• Copper prices took a hit, indicating pressure on the global economy, while softs were up, led by sugar. (-) 
• Gold had almost the biggest drop in the last 15 years this week, an interesting divergence from its usual risk-off role. It could be profit taking from its big run up and motivated by moves to increase liquidity. (-)
• Still a little more seasonal weakness for equities, though they do tend to improve in April. (-)

Actionable Trading Plan

Market Stance

• Primary Bias: Defensive / Tactical (Risk-Off tilt with reversal awareness)
• Playbook: Sell strength → selectively buy oversold only on confirmation
  

Positioning

• Net Exposure: 30–50% long (reduced), avoid aggressive net short unless breakdown accelerates
• Long Focus:
  • Energy / Financials (relative strength leaders)
  • Selective semis (only if holding key MAs / relative strength vs QQQ)
  • Value > Growth (growth in distribution phase)
• Avoid / Underweight:
  • Foreign equities (below 200 DMA)
  • Metals (post-parabolic unwind)
  • Weak breadth sectors

Key Signals to Monitor

• Bullish Shift Triggers:
  • McClellan Oscillator reversal
  • Expansion in new highs vs lows
  • Volatility stays contained while price stabilizes
• Bearish Continuation:
  • Further deterioration in advance-decline
  • Credit rolls over (high yield weakness)
  • Semis lose relative strength
    

Special Situations / Tactical Notes

• Gold flush: Watch for stabilization → potential liquidity-driven bounce trade
• Bitcoin: Holding up = risk appetite not fully broken
• Copper weakness: Confirms macro pressure → don’t overcommit to cyclicals yet