Big View Bullets for 03/30/2025
Big View Bullets as of Mar. 30th
Summary: Markets sold off Friday, erasing its earlier gains on the week. They are at a critical juncture where if they can hold the March 13th lows, we could resume a bounce, though a failure could accelerate into a harder sell-off.
Risk On
Neutral
- Markets were down between -1% and -2.5% for the week, led by NASDAQ, with both the SPY and QQQ failing its attempt to reclaim their 200-Day Moving Averges. Most of the weekly decline happened on Friday, though it hasn’t taken out its earlier March lows yet. (=)
- The color charts (moving average of the stocks above key moving averages) are negative on the longer-term but still neutral on short and intermediate terms. (=)
- Emerging and more established equities were down on the week, though less than U.S. markets and both are holding onto bullish phases with rising 50 and 200-Day Moving Averages. (=)
- Copper broke out to new highs before mean-reverting into the close of the week, but the trend remains intact. (=)
Risk Off
- Volume patterns are negative with more distribution days than accumulation days over the last two weeks with the exception of the NASDAQ which had the same number of both. (-)
- The percentage of stocks above their key moving averages is stacked and sloped negatively and not oversold. (-)
- Sector performance was negative nearly across the board with the only sectors positive on the week being traditional risk-off ones like Gold Miners & Consumer staples. (-)
- The biggest winners on the week were commodities like gold and Silver, while tech and semiconductors took the hardest hits. (-)
- The McClellan Oscilator flipped back negative by Fridays close and is not oversold. (-)
- Cash volatility held its 200-Day Moving Average and bounced higher on Friday. (-)
- Risk gauges deteriorated by Friday’s close and are fully negative. (-)
- Value outperformed growth on this down move in the market, though both are now under their 200-Day Moving Average. (-)
- Four of the six modern family members are in bearish or distribution phases with all members either below their 50 or 200-Day Moving Averages or both. (-)
- Gold hit new all-time highs and is not overbought on price or Real Motion. (-)
- Flight to safety on Friday across all ends of the yield curve. (-)