Summary: After a flurry of activity over the last few weeks, markets paused on a holiday-shortened week, off their weakest levels, but still significantly off their recent highs and processing the potential effects of tariffs and the probability of an economic downturn. 

Risk On

• The McClellan Oscilator turned back decidedly positive and the Advance-Decline moved off its oversold levels. (+)
• Seasonally, we are entering one of the stronger periods of the year for markets overall and particularly for technology and semiconductors, which have been lagging all year. (+)

Neutral

• Markets put in an inside week on lower volatility and volumes. (=)
• The New High New Low ratio bounced off it’s lowest levels in nearly two years. (=)
• Volatility remains elevated but well off its recent peak and largely unchanged on the week. (=)
• The percentage of stocks above key moving averages recovered off its lowest levels since 2023. (=)
• Aside from some brief moments, Value has been leading growth for most of 2025. (=)
• Both emerging and developed foreign markets continued to outperform the U.S. with particular strength in developed markets, which reclaimed it’s bullish phase. (=)
• Gold continued its strong trend, gaping to new all-time highs this week. (=)
• The dollar was quiet this week, though its sitting around its lowest levels since 2022 and 2023, while the Euro is sitting at 2-3 year highs. (=)

Risk Off

• The color charts (moving average of stocks above key moving averages) continues to be completely risk-off with the exception of the shorter 20-day time frame on the Nasdaq. (-)
• Risk gauges backed off from a 40% to 20% with the relative strength in TLT holding up. Risk-off. (-)
• All six members of the modern family are in bearish phases and Semiconductors was the weakest member on the week. (-)
• After a really strong showing last week, volume patterns backed off on a holiday shortened week. (-)
• Most sectors were down marginally on the week, led by technology and semiconductors, while risk-off sectors like Utilites were up. (-)