Big View Bullets for 04/26/2026
Big View Bullets as of Apr. 26th
Summary: Markets remain broadly risk-on with strong volume, bullish breadth, and leadership from tech pushing the QQQ to new highs, though short-term conditions are slightly overbought and momentum is uneven across indexes and styles. At the same time, mixed sector performance, cooling internals, and cross-asset indecision (rates, commodities, and global markets) suggest a more fragile backdrop beneath the surface strength.
Risk On
- Markets put in a mixed week, with the QQQ surging to new highs off of solid tech earnings, while the other three indexes took a bit of a pause around their highs. (+)
- Volume remained strong with on average twice as many accumulation days as distribution days. (+)
- In the very short-term, the new high new low ratio is looking a little overbought, though the longer-term trend remains strong. (+)
- The color charts (moving average of stocks above key moving averages) look quite bullish in the NASDAQ and fairly bullish in SPY and IWM. (+)
- Risk gauges remain quite strong with 4 of the 5 ratios risk-on with the wood/lumbar ratio being the only hold-out . (+)
- Volatility was up slightly from last week's close, though it was mostly sideways and elevated slightly above its 200-Day Moving Average. (+)
- The percentage of stocks above key moving averages came off its highs from earlier in the month, but all readings are still above the 50% level. (+)
- Both growth and value have picked up, though neither has quite made new highs (growth is pushing) and value has stalled out around its 50-Day Moving Average. A weak risk-on reading with close key reference points underneath. (+)
- Emerging and developed foreign equities are all in bull phases with emerging markets putting in a new all-time high close on Friday. (+)
- Bitcoin continues its slow trend higher but could see some resistance overhead. (+)
- Seasonal trends cool a bit in the next few weeks but remain bullish. (+)
Neutral
- Sectors were mixed with technology and semiconductors pulling away from the pack. While healthcare and gold miners were down nearly as much. A mixed global macro picture from a risk-on/risk-off perspective. (=)
- Market internals came off their overbought levels, even as markets pushed to slight new highs in the S&P. A little bit of a counter-signal. (=)
- The modern family has good relative strength with 4 of the six in bull phases, though aside from Semiconductors, they were all flat to down on the week. (=)
- Aggs put in a slight new high this week indicating sustained inflationary pressure. (=)
- Gold could be at an interesting inflection point near its 50-Day Moving Average and is compressing around these levels. Similar story with oil being in a wide range for the last few weeks. (=)
- Fixed income remains in a tight trading range with uncertainty around a new chairman. (=)