Big View Bullets for 06/22/2025

June 22, 2025

Big View Analysis

By Keith Schneider

Summary: Markets remained relatively resilient despite geopolitical tensions, with strong breadth indicators and favorable seasonal trends suggesting underlying bullishness. However, light volume, weakening short-term breadth, persistent risk-off signals, and elevated volatility point to a cautious environment amid broader strength.

Risk On

  • The four indexes came off slightly on the week, but held up well especially given geopolitical complications. (+)
  • The new high new low ratio remains strong above the 70 level for mid and longer-term readings. (+)
  • In the recent turmoil, value has started to outperform growth and the S&P 500, though both trends remain strong overall with a potential golden cross in Growth. (+)
  • Late-June into July has been one of the strongest seasonal periods for markets in the last ten years. (+)

Neutral

  • Volume lightened up with more distribution days than accumulation, though small caps showed more relative positive volume. (=)
  • Nearly all sectors except energy and retail came off slightly on the holiday shortened week. (=)
  • The Mcclellan Oscilator and advance decline came off a little, crossing into slightly negative territory. (=)
  • The color charts (moving average of stocks above key moving averages) are still looking positive over longer-terms readings though they show short-term weakness on both the 20-Day and 50-Day periods. (=)
  • The stocks above key moving averages continues to come off recent highs, but shows some strength on the longer-term trend. (=)
  • The modern family continues to appear weak across the board. Biotech and Regional banks weakened slightly with little change in the other members. (=)
  • Both emerging and developed markets came off sharply on the week with the S&P starting to outperform them on short-term readings. Both remain in bullish phases with developed markets correcting back towards its 50-Day Moving Average. (=)
  • Agriculture corrected below its 200-Day Moving for the first time since April, though the broader trend over the last year remains up. (=) 
  • Gold consolidated just off its all-time highs. (=)
  • Rates held steady as the Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged, though they still signaled the potential for a rate drop later this year. (=)

Risk Off

  • Risk gauge still shows risk-off with a 20% reading. (-)
  • Volatility remained elevated at the levels it closed last week. Potentially good that it didn’t accelerate but still pointing to higher levels of risk in this environment. (-)
  • Oil continued its massive surge given the escalation of turmoil in the Middle East. This $83 level has been the high for the last several years and its coincided with prior recent market corrections. (-)