Summary: Markets are firmly in risk-on mode, with bullish price action across sectors, strengthening internals, surging growth leadership, and volume signaling broad accumulation. Although gold and interest rates remain in consolidation, the market shows strong seasonal momentum and breadth, supported by low volatility and 100% positive risk gauges.

Risk On

• Price action in the markets is risk-on. Our Real Motion in QQQ & SPY is not overbought, indicating more potential upside. Small Caps, a concern last week, has resolved to the upside. S&P 500 also crossed into a bullish phase. (+)
• Volume saw a big shift from the prior week, favoring accumulation days in all the indexes except Nasdaq. (+)
• Positive price action across all sectors with homebuilders and retail significantly improving and semiconductors hitting a new all-time high. (+)
• Solar, which had been lagging the market, surged this week, regaining all it’s underperformance over the last six months. (+)
• Market internals strengthened significantly, running strong, but not overbought and the cumulative Advance-Decline made a new 52-week high. (+)
• New High New Low Ratio improved to bullish across the board. (+)
• Color Charts (moving average of stocks above key moving averages) showing 100% bullish readings across all indexes and time frames. (+)
• Risk gauges strengthened to 100% positive with all relationships showing risk-on. (+)
• Volatility continued to pull off reaching its lowest levels since February. (+)
• Growth continues to lead and hit new all-time highs and we had strong performance and close to taking out the all-time highs in value. Everything looks in gear with growth leading. (+)
• The modern family showed great improvement in five of the six family members on great volume, although we are starting to run a bit rich in Grandpa Russell. (+)
• Emerging and developed markets fell off a bit in relative performance to the U.S., but both still strong in bull phases. (+)
• Aggs are lagging the S&P in a distribution phase, signalling easing inflationary pressures. (+)
• Copper remains strong. It got a little overbought on real motion, potentially digesting the recent move. (+)
• Bitcoin broke above a significant trendline from the May-June highs and if it can hold around current levels, projects higher prices. (+)
• July is one of the strongest seasonal periods for markets in the last ten years and is off to a hot start to the month. (+)

Neutral

• Gold continues to consolidate near it’s all-time highs and in a bullish phase. It is losing momentum. (=)
• Rates are in a consolidation rage with an unclear reading for any potential July action from the Fed. (=)