Summary: Markets surged to fresh all-time highs across all major indexes with strong sector performance, very low volatility, and broad strength in growth, value, and global equities, signaling a strong risk-on environment. However, internals such as volume, breadth, and new highs vs. lows remain mixed, the risk gauge has shifted to neutral, and seasonal weakness combined with short-term deterioration in S&P and Nasdaq trend charts introduce caution.

Risk On

• All four indexes made new all time highs, up between +0.84% for DIA and +2.19% in QQQ. (+)
• Sectors were strong this week, with spec sectors like technology and consumer discretionary up and consumer staples down and utilities down. A risk-on reading. (+)
• The color charts (moving average of stocks above key moving averages) are marginally positive for IWM on shorter timeframes with a strong longer-term trend. (+)
• Volatility readings remain very low indicating risk-on. (+)
• Both value and growth are in bull phases with growth leading on short and longer-term time frames. Running rich, but risk on.  (+)
• The modern family is in unison, in bull phases with semiconductors pushing to new all-time highs. (+)
• Both emerging and developed markets are stong, with emerging markets leading U.S. markets. (+) 

Neutral

• Volume patterns have improved, though remain neutral on balance, with really strong readings in DIA. (=)
• Market internals continue to lag with the McClellan Oscillator turning negative despite the market closing Friday on all time highs .Up/down volume over past five days is marginally positive (=)
• The New high new low ratio is also showing signs of slowing or rolling over at modestly overbought levels. (=)
• The Risk gauge moved to neutral with the improvement in the SPY/TLT ratio.  (=)
• Soft commodities backed off hard, back to its 200 Day Moving Average. (=)
• Rates crept back up a little post Fed announcement and off the recent lows. (=)
• Gold maintained its strength at the highs this week, though it running rich off its parabolic move over the last 4 weeks. (=)

Risk Off

• This upcoming week is historically one of the weakest seasonally, though September has been bucking its historical trend thus far. (-)
• The color charts (moving average of stocks above key moving averages) on a short and intermediate term basis for, the S&P500 is negative, while the longer-term timeframe remains positive,and the NASDQ100 is either negative or neutral in all timeframes (-)

Market Outlook

• Bias: Risk-on but with caution.
• Rationale: All major indexes at new highs with leadership from growth, technology, and discretionary sectors. Volatility is low, value and growth both in bull phases, and emerging markets outperforming. However, internals (breadth, McClellan Oscillator, NH/NL ratio) are weakening, and seasonality plus short-term deterioration in S&P and Nasdaq trends warrant risk controls.

Actionable Trading Plan

1. Equity Index Positioning

• Entry: Favor pullbacks in QQQ, IWM, and DIA toward short-term support levels (e.g., QQQ ~50-day MA, IWM recent breakout retests).
• Target: Ride momentum toward measured extensions (QQQ +3–5%, IWM +2–4%).
• Stop: Close below recent swing lows or 50-day MA (tighten if volatility spikes).

2. Sector Rotation

• Overweight:
• Technology & Semiconductors (SOXX, SMH): New highs and leadership; enter on shallow dips.
• Consumer Discretionary (XLY): Momentum intact with growth leadership.
• Underweight / Avoid:
• Consumer Staples (XLP) and Utilities (XLU): Defensive sectors underperforming, confirming risk-on.

3. Global Exposure

• Emerging Markets (EEM / specific country ETFs): Continue overweight given leadership vs. U.S.; buy dips toward 20-day MA.
• Developed Markets (EFA): Maintain allocation but expect relative lag to EM.

4. Commodities & Alternatives

• Gold (GLD): Extended after parabolic run. Only consider tactical mean-reversion short if momentum breaks (e.g., closes below 20-day MA).
• Soft Commodities (DBA): Back to 200-day MA; monitor for bounce setup but avoid fresh longs until strength reasserts.

5. Risk Management

• Seasonality Caution: The upcoming week is historically weak—size positions smaller or stagger entries.