Summary: U.S. equities remain under pressure following a sharp Friday selloff, with elevated volatility, weakness in technology and semiconductors, and major indexes testing key support levels, particularly their 200-Day Moving Averages. However, improving market breadth, resilient internals, leadership from value stocks, recovering bonds, and favorable seasonal trends suggest underlying strength and the potential for a rebound, even as risk gauges remain cautious at 40%. 

Risk On

• Market internals, despite Friday’s selloff, held up well, signalling a broadening of the market. (+)
• New high new low ratio is holding up and still positively trending. (+)
• Seasonal trends tend to strengthen into November and  into the last part of the year (Most of the time). (+)
• Bonds continued their rebound, with IEF and TLT comfortably above their 50-Day Moving Averages. This could be more than just mean reversion and potentially good for equities. TLT has an unconfirmed head and shoulders bottom.  (=))

Neutral

• Volume patterns improved, with DIA and IWM showing more accumulation days than distribution days, though SPY and QQQ still favored distribution days. (=)
• Sectors were broadly up on the week, with the major exceptions of Semiconductors and Technology with a particularly violent downdraft on Friday.(=)
• Risk gauges held at 40%. (=)
• Value put in new all-time highs while growth gapped lower, but held its 200-Day Moving Average. (=)
• The modern family held up on a relative basis with the broadening of this market. Semiconductors are still concerning, closing back right around its 200-Day Moving Average. (=)
• Soft commodities broke down into a distribution phase, perhaps signalling lower inflation risks. Copper was also weak.(=)
• Gold is looking heavy, with its lowest close since October 2025. (=)
• Bitcoin broke down under important levels and its 50-Day Moving Average. (=)
• Bonds continued their rebound, with IEF and TLT comfortably above their 50-Day Moving Averages. This could be more than just mean reversion and potentially good for equities. TLT has an unconfirmed head and shoulders bottom.  (=)
• The color charts (moving average of stocks above key moving averages) are continuing to show improvements, particularly on the shorter time frames. (=)

Risk Off

• Most Major U.S. indexes sold off this week, gapping lower particularly on Friday. All four indexes are holding their 200-Day Moving Averages, though IWM and QQQ are the closest to failing. QQQ is oversold on momentum. TSI is weakening. (-)
• Volatility held above recent levels, revisiting last week’s high. (-)
• Emerging markets had its lowest close since April, looking much weaker than U.S. markets. Developed markets held their 200-Day Moving Average. (-)
• Oil closed on new highs. (-)