Long-term index trends as depicted by the weekly charts of the SPY, QQQ, DIA and IWM are strong, and the daily charts sit on the 50-day MA’s. However, there is short-term concern (see Risk-Off). (+)
Daily charts of our 4 key stock indexes were week last week and sit on their 50-day MA with bearish Real Motion patterns (all explained further in the video). (-)
Sector breath was negative last week again. XLU, the leading index accelerated it’s negative reversal from the week prior (more in the video). SMH had a hopeful close to the week prior but last week fell back into a negative contition (see video).(-)
New High/Low ratios are showing signs of rolling over. Watch out if this gets weaker.(-)
Keep an eye on the VIX readings. The’re neutral now, but the ratio is weakening and both index time frames have bullish charts (which suggests increasing fear), that look like they could jump quickly if they break higher. (=)
Neutral
THE ELECTION FOLLOWED BY A FED MEETING ON WEDNESDAY are neutral because they are not predictable. They could be a catalyst that could begin a significant short term move in either direction. In the video I describe the significance of the Election Range and suggest getting this report on market patterns related to the election and how to trade them - marketgauge.com/electionRpt-2024 (=)
The Risk Gauges Gauge remain in neutral However, the ratios of SPY/TLT and HYG/TLT which are contributing to the bullish side of the equation should be watched carefully. If they flip quickly it’a bearish (more details in the video). See the ratios here.
