Summary: The market flipped broadly risk-on as all major indexes reclaimed bullish phases, sectors rallied across the board, metals surged—especially silver breaking a 45-year high—and internals like the McClellan Oscillator and new highs/lows strengthened alongside easing volatility and rates. Despite Nasdaq lagging slightly and mixed holiday-week volume, the “Modern Family,” global equities, and gold all showed strong momentum, while seasonal and cross-asset signals remain neutral but not bearish.

Risk On

• All four of the indexes surged back into bullish phases, though some caution as they are still off their recent highs. Strong recovery not overbought on price or real motion across the board.(+) 
• Every sector was up on the week, led by Gold Miners, home builders, retail, and semiconductors. (+)
• Metals led this week and the very strong move in silver took out its 45-year high, trading above $50 an ounce. Perhaps driven by industrial demand. (+)
• Market internals surged, particularly the McClellan Oscillator, which has been lagging for months. (+)
• New high new low ratio flipped positive from oversold levels. (+)
• Color charts (moving average of stocks above key moving averages) turned positive across the board for S&P and Russels, with the Nasdaq lagging a bit. (+)
• Volatility sank back towards its November lows and not far from its lowest levels this year. (+)
• Value is leading growth but they are both in bull phases. Growth is lagging a bit in momentum and just regained its bull phase on Friday. (+)
• The modern family is very strong and seeing a little rotation out of semiconductors into retail, biotech, transportation, regional banks, etc. (+) 
• Both emerging and developed markets re-entered bull phases, though U.S. markets led. (+)
• Gold looks potentially explosive with improving momentum. (+)
• Interest rates eased this week, especially on the short and intermediate side of the yield curve. It looks poised to take out recent multiyear highs.  (+)

Neutral

• All four of the indexes surged back into bullish phases, though they are still off their recent highs. Momentum is not overdone on real motion. (+) 
• Volume patterns skewed towards distribution through it was a low volume holiday week. The Russel had more accumulation than distribution days. (=)
• Gauge improved to neutral with the strength in the index this week. (=)
• Aggs are still in a wide trading range. (=)
• Energy remains near the lower end of its trading range. (=)
• Bitcoin rallied off its low and oversold real motion condition though it lagged the market. (=)
• Seasonally, we tend to see a little strength in the S&P, though more weak in QQQ and IWM and susceptible to end of year tax selling. (=)

Risk Off

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Actionable Trading Plan 

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1. Index Positioning

Go long SPY, QQQ, and DIA with full allocations, as all indexes have re-entered bullish phases and momentum is not overbought.
Increase IWM exposure to overweight (by +10–20% relative to baseline) given the strong phase shift, improving internals, and accumulation bias in volume.

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2. Sector Allocations

Because every sector turned positive but leadership rotated, shift weight toward sectors showing new relative strength:

Overweight (+2–4%)

• Gold miners (GDX) → explosive setup, improving momentum
  
• Homebuilders (XHB) → part of sector leadership
  
• Retail (XRT) → improving within Modern Family
  
• Biotech (XBI) → rotation into growth-y leadership
  
• Regional banks (KRE) → RM and phase improving
  

Maintain Core Weight

• Semiconductors (SMH) – still strong but showing some rotation out
  
• Technology (XLK) – lagging growth factor momentum slightly
  

Underweight (–2–3%)

• Energy (XLE) – at lower end of wide trading range
  
• Utilities (XLU) – relative weakness with falling rates
  

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3. Commodities & Metals

Silver

• Initiate a long position (SLV or futures) on any pullback to the 10-day EMA after breaking 45-year highs.
  
• Stop: Close below prior breakout zone ($48–49 equivalent).
  

Gold

• Add 25–50 bps of gold exposure (GLD / futures) as momentum is turning explosive.
  

Broad Commodities

• Add small exposure (DBC / PDBC) as inflation hedge with easing rates.
  

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4. Global Equities

With both emerging and developed markets back in bull phases:

• Add 5% sleeve to EEM and/or EFA, favoring EEM for momentum.
  
• Stop: Close back below 50-DMA.
  

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5. Rotation Strategy (Modern Family)

Modern Family is broadening out—this supports a “risk-on rotation” approach.

Add new positions in:

• IYT (transportation)
  
• IBB / XBI (biotech)
  
• KRE (regional banks)
  
• XRT (retail)
  

Reduce allocation slightly in:

• SMH (still bullish but capital rotating out)
  

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6. Fixed Income / Rates

Rates eased this week and appear to be retesting recent multi-year highs.

Trade:

• TLT or IEF short-term tactical long → expect follow-through bid as yields soften.
  
• Stop: Close above last week’s yield highs (or TLT below 20-DMA).
  

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7. Crypto

Bitcoin bounced from oversold RM but continues lagging major indexes.

Plan:

• Maintain small position size only (1–2%).
  
• Add on a breakout over recent swing highs; otherwise keep on watchlist.
  

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8. Risk Management / Gauge

Risk gauge moved to neutral, not fully risk-on.

Therefore:

• Keep positions sized normally, not maximum leverage.
  
• Maintain 10–15% cash buffer until volatility tests its lows and confirms.
  
• Avoid chasing extended moves intraday—buy pullbacks, not breakouts.
  

Summary

This is a broad risk-on environment with strong confirmation from phases, internals, metals, and global markets—so the plan is to increase exposure, rotate into newly emerging leaders, add metals, maintain a cash buffer due to the neutral gauge, and tighten stops under recent MAs.