Summary: Considering weak market internals (color charts & McClellan Oscillator) and rising interest rates along the long-end of the curve, while both the Nasdaq and S&P are holding onto Bull Phases, we once again have a mixed picture and want to see how the monthly and six-month calendar ranges play out for a clear market direction.

Risk On

• Both the QQQ & SPY had a reasonably positive week, maintaining their bull phase. However, momentum (Real Motion) on both of those indexes are clearly losing steam and we closed under the 10 day moving average, so overall a weak positive . (+)
• Growth continues to outperform Value and is leading the S&P as well. (+)
• The modern family held up rather well with retail maintaining a bull phase, semiconductors outperforming, and transports regaining a warning phase. (+)
• Over the last 5 trading days, 12 of the 14 sectors closed positive, led by semiconductors, while one of the weakest was consumer staples, giving more of a risk-on reading overall. (+)
• Clean energy led the market up, likely the result of political calculations. (+)

Neutral

• Risk gauges remain neutral with no change from last week. (=)
• Sentiment/Volatility readings gave up virtually all of their gains on the sell-off with cash volatility closing underneath all of its moving averages, but still above the lower level compression ranges established in late November/early December. (=)
• Volume patterns have improved to a neutral across the board. (=)
• The new high new low ratio improved on a closing basis, but would need to see a cross over the short-term moving average to generate a more positive reading/buy signal. (=)
• The Santa Claus rally has turned into the Santa-pause rally, though he may have a few more days to show up.. (=)
• Bitcoin is a bit underperforming its usual December rally, though is up over 100% year-to-date and holding some of its post-election gains. (=)

Risk-Off

• Dow and IWM continued to close in warning phases, though positive on the week, with poor momentum though they have already worked off their oversold conditions. (-)
• Both emerging markets and developed markets continued underperform the SPY and are below their respective 200-Day Moving Averages. (-)
• Short-term, the number of stocks above key moving averages look like they have some capacity to bounce, though longer-term trends still skew negative. (-)
• The interest rate picture, particularly on the longer end of the yield curve, closed on fresh 2024 lows. (-)
• Despite the rally off of oversold conditions, the McClellan Oscillator never turned positive and remains negative with the Nasdaq a bit better off. (-)
• The Color charts across all-time frames for all the indexes were negative with the exception of the longer-term readings on IWM. (-)