TITLE: Oil-Driven Markets, FOMC Volatility, And Opening Range Reversals Across Stocks And Bonds (09-16-2026)
VIDEO SUMMARY: (FIRST POV Geoff)Geoff analyzed how crude oil, bonds, and equities interacted during the prior session, emphasizing that a large oil move—roughly 2% or …
Before this week’s Market Outlook, we’d like to take a moment to remember all those impacted by 9/11 and share a personal experience from that day. Never Forget — Remembering Ari Jacobs September 11 will always be deeply personal to …
TITLE: A Fragile Market Rotation: SMH Leadership, RSP Weakness, Oil Risk, And Tactical Breakout Confirmation (09-09-2026)
VIDEO SUMMARY: (FIRST POV Geoff)Geoff analyzed a market rotation in which SMH rallied through its 50-day moving average while RSP broke below its …
While over the last several months, as the market has been coming to grips with likelihood of a higher Fed Funds rate and the reality of higher long-term rates, the ETF for the Mag 7 has been improving its technical …
TITLE: Market Weakness, Breadth, And Breakout Setups (09-02-2026)
VIDEO SUMMARY: (FIRST POV Geoff)Geoff examined a fragile but potentially stabilizing market backdrop through the S&P 500, Nasdaq, equal-weighted S&P 500, semiconductors, bonds, and crude oil. He emphasized the importance of …
With so much talk about what the Fed Chairman, Kevin Warsh, is saying he won’t say in the way of offering guidance, I decided to organize what he did say. I think it offers quite a bit of guidance into …
TITLE: NVIDIA Earnings Ahead As Bonds Rise And Crude Falls: Intermarket Signals, Risk-Based Setups, And Trend Scanning (08-26-2026)
VIDEO SUMMARY: (FIRST POV Geoff)Geoff analyzed a quiet, corrective market awaiting NVIDIA earnings, comparing rising TLTs, falling crude oil, and stagnant …
Summary Basic Materials (XLB) broke out of a multi-month consolidation, with unusually broad strength in copper and agricultural input stocks creating several attractive trend-trading setups. The strength in economically sensitive Materials supports the narrative of a healthy economy with persistent …
TITLE: Treasury Bond Support, The Ten-Day Moving Average Head Fake, and Semiconductor Confirmation (08-19-2026)
VIDEO SUMMARY: (FIRST POV Geoff)Geoff analyzed a market reacting to the Treasury’s plan to increase funding for long-duration Treasury buybacks, using TLT as the key …
Last week was filled with bullish developments, but on Friday the focus was bearish news in retail sales, so let's start there. Retail sales was expected to be up +.1% but as shown by the chart, it came in with …