Summary Basic Materials (XLB) broke out of a multi-month consolidation, with unusually broad strength in copper and agricultural input stocks creating several attractive trend-trading setups. The strength in economically sensitive Materials supports the narrative of a healthy economy with persistent …
TITLE: Treasury Bond Support, The Ten-Day Moving Average Head Fake, and Semiconductor Confirmation (08-19-2026)
VIDEO SUMMARY: (FIRST POV Geoff)Geoff analyzed a market reacting to the Treasury’s plan to increase funding for long-duration Treasury buybacks, using TLT as the key …
Last week was filled with bullish developments, but on Friday the focus was bearish news in retail sales, so let's start there. Retail sales was expected to be up +.1% but as shown by the chart, it came in with …
TITLE: Inflation In Line, Stocks Consolidating: Bonds, Oil, Market Internals, Sector Breadth, and Breakout Risk (08-12-2026)
VIDEO SUMMARY: (FIRST POV Geoff)Geoff analyzed an in-line inflation report that initially supported a modestly bullish futures reaction without confirming a powerful uptrend. …
Last week was filled with significant information in earnings, investor sentiment, inflation, interest rates, economic growth, geopolitics, and important technical milestones. However, often times, it’s what doesn’t happen that matters more than what does. Weekly Market Outlook — Key Takeaways …
Higher long-term interest rates are becoming a more meaningful headwind, even as the major indexes remain resilient. Market momentum has become increasingly selective, suggesting the rally may be less broad than the indexes imply. This week's earnings from Meta, …
The July Calendar Ranges are revealing an important market rotation. Semiconductors are weakening, while energy, industrials, transportation, and healthcare are emerging as leaders. Strong earnings reports from several important market leaders have been met with selling. So far, rotation …
Geoff stated that he is currently more bearish than he has been in a very long time due to the extreme risks at current market inflection points and the concerning trend of stocks reacting negatively to positive earnings. …
In this mentoring session, the host reviews the broad market backdrop, emphasizing how crude oil, bonds, and semiconductors are shaping risk appetite. He walks through the SPY, QQQ, IWM, and sector behavior, then uses MarketGauge-style tools and language …
Summary: The 3-2-1 crack spread has reached an extreme, with important implications for inflation, Fed policy, gasoline prices, and refining stocks that recently broke out to all-time highs. IBM’s historic 25% collapse demonstrates how rising memory costs and concentrated AI …