Archives: Market Outlook Premium

Drama on Wallstreet

Keith Schneider | January 31, 2021

Mish in “SECOND COUSINS” (Santa Fe Playhouse) comedy/drama about Hedge Funds written and directed by Ron Bloomberg The trading war between retail traders and hedge funds has taken over Wall Street and is receiving intensive media focus. It has taken over the radio waves, newspapers and even the more modern way to communicate …. the internet. Here is our take. My partners and I have been trading collectively for over 120 years, either from the


Priming the Pump

Keith Schneider | January 24, 2021

Pump priming is the action taken to stimulate an economy, usually during a recessionary period, through government spending and interest rate and tax reductions... When I started in the trading business down on the floor of the NY exchanges some 40+ years ago, we followed many economic signals and watched how the geopolitical news impacted the price of commodities (especially gold), the US dollar, and oil prices. Back then, inflation was a problem, and the Federal


Mixed Signals

Keith Schneider | January 18, 2021

I have been reviewing lots of graphs and charts that I come across and many others that people e-mail to me. I am always intrigued by all the statistics that people put together showing what might occur in January and how it foretells the remainder of the year. I also enjoy seeing the graphs and tables showing what should occur if we come off two good quarters, like the 3rd and 4th of 2020, and


MONEY

Keith Schneider | January 10, 2021

“It’s a Gas. I am in the High Fidelity, First Class Traveling Sect and I think I need a Lear Jet” - The song "Money" by Pink Floyd “Money can’t buy happiness, But it sure can rent it for a while” - Kim Gruenenfelder “Never Spend Your Money Before You Have Earned it” - Thomas Jefferson Our focus this week on how money serves several purposes. One, we want to highlight what is going on


A Whacky, Strange But Profitable Year

Keith Schneider | January 3, 2021

One that I think we all might want to put in the “rearview mirror” although looking back we have nothing short of 20/20 vision.   After COVID 19 made itself known in early January, lockdowns in March sent investors into a quick bearish market only to be surprised just two months later as a new Bull market was launched.  Very few, if any prognosticators expected the kind of big returns we witnessed among most asset classes.


A Commodity Super Cycle looks Underway

Keith Schneider | December 20, 2020

Equity markets continue their bullish tear closing positive on the week and once again led by Grandpa Russell +2.5% (IWM). This is being partially fueled by the prospects of the passing of a long-awaited stimulus package in tandem with the optimism from the COVID vaccine rollout and seasonal (holiday) optimism. However, the pending stimulus package in conjunction with the Government’s easy monetary policy is pushing the dollar down around the globe and creating some big


The Rotation Continues

Keith Schneider | December 13, 2020

US Equity Markets digested recent gains with Grandpa Russell from The Modern Family (IWM) bucking the recent correction in the NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) and the S&P 500 (SPY). Leading FAANG+ stocks are losing momentum and ripe for more selling. To us, it appears that there is a combination of sector rotation, changing style bias (Value vs. Growth), and some tax selling taking hold of the markets. While December, especially mid-month to the New Year has


Is the Dollar Down for the Count?

Keith Schneider | December 6, 2020

The dollar is crumbling, US Long Bonds are teetering, inflation is bubbling, and equities globally seem quite content, or for that matter, thrilled. US stocks closed on all-time highs, and many foreign markets did even better this past week Most noteworthy are the new themes that are taking hold. The first one is that US equity leadership has passed the baton to foreign markets, which have had the most impressive gains recently on a relative


Inflation Coming without Gold?

Keith Schneider | November 29, 2020

US small cap stocks continue to show amazing relative strength and over the last six months and is one of the best performing stock indexes, up over 31%.The Small Caps were outperformed during this period by only South Korea and Taiwan, two countries that navigated the Corona Virus most adroitly. Most noteworthy is that the selloff in Gold defied inflationary moves in energy, industrial metals, and soft commodities. This shows markets believe that geopolitical stress


Bubble Trouble for Next 10 Years?

Keith Schneider | November 22, 2020

As the outcome of the presidential election is still being contested and the virus spreading to its highest levels since the initial outbreak, US equity markets mostly shrugged off this uncertainty with small caps gaining nicely on the week. This was partly spurred on by positive news regarding vaccines. Looking deeper under the hood, sector rotation out of utilities and consumer staples into retail and energy (each rallied over 5% for the week) was clearly