Active Investing Edge Mentoring for August 26, 2026

Geoff Bysshe | August 26, 2026

NVIDIA Earnings Reaction Tests Nasdaq Momentum, Real Motion Divergences, Opening Range Breakouts, and Market Leadership (08-26-2026)

VIDEO SUMMARY:

Geoff analyzed the market’s mixed reaction to NVIDIA earnings, emphasizing that the Nasdaq 100, represented by the QQQs, needed to hold support and reclaim key moving averages before momentum could improve. He explained how Real Motion’s green and red dots should be interpreted alongside the 50- and 200-period averages, rather than treated as equally weighted bullish or bearish signals. Geoff used the QQQs’ five-minute chart to distinguish a support-based pullback from a full reversal and stressed that price action remained the primary factor. He monitored NVIDIA, the S&P 500, RSP, SMH, bonds, volatility, and sectors for confirmation, noting that NVIDIA’s strength had not yet lifted the broader market decisively. Geoff discussed opening-range breakouts, VWAP support, ATR-based stops, and tight risk management in names including ARM, LITE, Twilio, Dell, and Palantir. He concluded that a sustained upside breakout with NVIDIA participating would support further gains, while failure would leave the market choppy ahead of Jackson Hole.

SESSION HIGHLIGHTS:

  1. [00:00:00] Interpreting Real Motion With Price: Geoff clarified that Real Motion dots show position relative to the 50-period average, but their significance depends on the broader 50- and 200-period structure. He advised comparing momentum with price to identify meaningful divergences and risk.
  2. [00:11:18] QQQ Support And Broader Market Context: Geoff reviewed daily consolidation in the QQQs and S&P futures, noting that a breakout over the 10-day average would improve the outlook. Bonds, oil, IWM, and RSP offered limited confirmation as the opening approached.
  3. [00:20:15] NVIDIA Versus The QQQs: Geoff compared NVIDIA's continued overnight strength with the QQQs' stalled reaction, then examined premarket ranges, the pivot, and the 200-period average. He used the price levels to frame a futures entry and define tight downside risk.
  4. [00:30:25] Opening Range And Semiconductor Leadership: Geoff made the 30-minute opening range central to the session, watching whether NVIDIA and the broader market would break their lows or highs together. Weakness in SMH, AMD, and other chip-related names complicated NVIDIA's positive earnings signal.
  5. [00:47:19] VWAP, ARM, And LITE Trade Setups: Geoff examined ARM's recovery potential and LITE's opening-range reversal structure, using prior breakouts, support, VWAP, and half-ATR risk to assess entries. He stressed that stronger technology participation would be needed to change the market's tone.
  6. [01:07:21] Breakouts Meet Real Motion Divergence: Geoff evaluated fresh QQQ and NVIDIA breakout attempts, noting that Real Motion was improving but mainly confirming price rather than leading it. He identified nearby inflection points and tight stops while warning that failed continuation could mean chop.
  7. [01:15:15] Twilio, Dell, And Palantir Entries: Geoff reviewed individual setups in Twilio, Dell, and Palantir, focusing on opening-range breakouts, support, resistance, moving averages, ATR, and stop placement. He favored Palantir above 86 only if the broader market was also breaking higher.
  8. [01:22:47] NVIDIA, Market Tone, And Jackson Hole: Geoff concluded that leaders had attempted breakouts but rolled over, leaving a choppy market. He would give NVIDIA the benefit of the doubt on renewed upside, while watching LITE and other related stocks for confirmation before Jackson Hole.