Evening Watch for Apr. 12th 2012

Mish Schneider | April 11, 2012

Inside day in all 4 indexes. Although S&P 500 now has a confirmed warning phase, it is a weak phase change since the slope on the 50 DMA is positive. NASDAQ 100 is still in a bullish phase and Russell 2000 like SPY, in a confirmed warning phase, but also weak. The video from Tuesday night goes into detail about 3 possible scenarios after a huge distribution spike in volume and a phase change, focused primarily on SPY. Inside day typically means that after the pause, the way the inside day range breaks, is the direction of the next move.

S&P 500 (SPY) Subs: Positive Pivots meaning above the high clears the 50 DMA and a break of the low, also breaks S1.

NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Subs: Follow the way the range breaks here  

ETFS:

GLD Inside day with positive pivots-also a good one to follow the range break

XLF (Financials) Held 15.00 first time and back over the 50 DMA keeping daily bull phase intact. Subs: Over today's high would consider a reentry for swing

IBB (Biotechnology) Subs: Positive Pivots meaning above the high clears the 50 DMA and a break of the low, also breaks S1

SMH (Semiconductors) Back above 34.70 would be encouraging but now under the 50 DMA

XRT (Retail) Hovering on the 50 DMA

IYT (Transportation) See nothing all that significant except weak relative performer

IYR (Real Estate) Double top and holding the 80 monthly positive trend which makes this group confusing yet an essential piece of the economic recovery pie

XLE (Energy) Subs: Inside day with negative pivots and still oversold on RSIs.

TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries)18.95 a good number to watch for a hold, then a trip back to the 50 DMA

Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
NOTE: There are lots of Condition 4 stocks that have positive pivots so will mainly focus on Condition 1 and 2 to keep list manageable.

Category 1: (Aloha) Positive Phase, Condition 1, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous Day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:

N/A

Category 2: (Pipeline) Positive Phase, Condition 2-3, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:

N/A

Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means candidate for Opening Range Reversal, Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:

ESRX 55.66 is the 10 DMA to hold.

INTU Prefer reversal and already long, but back to Condition1 provided 59.70 holds

PAY One of the better looking charts. Inside day tight risk to today's low

MNST Like to see 62.00 hold.

REGN Like to see 119.65 hold. Inside day

RHT Must hold 58.16 with inside day

WFM Changed to Condition 3 meaning, the slope on the 10 DMA negative. Must hold 83.20

Category 4: (Rip Tide) Oversold (2 or more days under FTP), Condition 1-4, Needs to clear R1, Risk previous day low unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:

WLP Has positive pivots yet closed 3 days under them and must hold 69.12 and clear today's high

CRM Reversal only against 156.25

HLF Condition 4 Inside day, must hold today's low and clear today's high with the 10 DMA the more critical point to keep you long

COP (Not a condition) 5 days under pivots, must hold today's low and way oversold

XEC (Not a condition) oversold and just beneath the 200 DMA which now must clear

Shorts: All have positive pivots so must show weakness

CNX Positive Pivots but underperformed market and must break S1 33.43

NSC Should break today's low and not clear today's high

DECK neutral to positive pivots so should break today's low and not clear today's high

SINA Must break today's low

FMCN Has to break today's low

Goodnight!