An old friend who owned AAPL stock since $100 called me and said I am getting out today once it traded $525 with a sell stop at $517. He is not a professional trader and has ignored many "TV" analysts calling for a top-including when Steve Jobs died and earnings have disappointed. So, why today? The 100% RSI on the weekly and daily charts brought to mind the adage about bulls, bears and pigs for one. Secondly, if anyone doubts the "psychological" and "collective consciousness" of the market, think herd mentality. It exists; it's real-you witnessed it today.
I cannot ignore technical signs like what happened in NASDAQ (QQQ). New highs, a sell off with a close on the lows, and a huge distribution day in volume (double the average daily). We shorted GOOG before the AAPL storm hit. Does it mean the market is over? That is unconfirmed as yet; but, we may see yet another rotation as money flows out of one area and into another.
ETFs:
GLD Bull phase, with negative slopes on the 10 and 50 DMA. Pivots positive. Will try another OR reversal, but not chase strength.
XLF (Financials) Just about filled the gap and held Tuesday low. The longer it holds up in this range, the better the chances of a new leg up and over the 200 weekly moving average
XRT (Retail) New highs, lower close, distribution volume and threatening the 10 DMA at 57.25. Been in love with this group for awhile; now way tempered.
IBB (Biotechnology) Held the 10 DMA and closed ok. Also has positive pivots. A move down to 117 would not be the worst thing in the world, but certainly would cause havoc on its way there.
SMH (Semiconductors) Like the chances in this group better than the aforementioned for now since it is not overbought
IYT (Transportation) The 50-DMA coming up fast at 91.50.
USO (United States Oil Fund) Subs-Good OR reversal and breakout. Could see 39.75-40.00 next
TBT (Ultrashort 20+ Year Treasury Bonds) Now with 2-day low at 18.68 and holding the island bottom, I am ready to pounce long yet again.
Longs:
KSS Confirmed phase change to Accumulation and inside day with Positive Pivots at 50.82.Could see 56-57.00. Day to Short-term Swing
LEA Provided it holds 44.50 area, now waiting to see if can clear 45.50 the 200 DMA. Has room to 49.00 level or higher. Positive Pivots. Day to Swing
AMGN 2 DOJI candles and positive pivots so could have more if clears R1 68.17. And holds 67.50.Day to Short-term Swing
Post Earnings: NTAP-Looks like it will gap over the 200 DMA at 42.18.
HLF (Reports February 21st) 2 days under the FTP and must hold 59.20. Then could see a pop before earnings. Day to Mini
Oversold: X and must clear 28.11 R1, then clears the 50 DMA.
Honorable Mention: Must Clear: NVLS* (47.50) SODA (40.93) POT* (45.21) Positive Pivots Opening Range Reversal: CREE (Hammer Candle gap higher) NFLX (Risk 121.09) LGF SFLY JWN VMW
Shorts:
GOOG Got short today and now if see a reversal with negative pivots, better way to control risk with some support at the 70 EMA 602.92. Day to Mini
RRC Haven't seen this one on the short list for a while. But, it had a death cross with price above the moving averages and could be just working on a left shoulder to a potential head and shoulders top. Since pivots are positive has to break 62.42 S1 and then we can re evaluate at 61.10 the 200 DMA. Risk the pivots for now. Day to Swing
XOM Negative Pivots and has to break the low of the last 3 days which will also break the 50 DMA. Then could see the 70 EMA or lower 82.85. Like RRC, looks like a potential head and shoulders top forming. Day to Swing
Honorable Mention: CTXS (Keith's reversal trade but must break S1) STT (Cannot clear today's high)PANL (Must break the 200 DMA) AMZN (OR reversal preferable to control risk)
Goodnight!