Leading the market analysis with AAPL once again. The giant neither confirmed a possible reversal from last week's blow off run nor negated it, closing right in the middle of uncertainty.
NASDAQ (QQQ) closed with an inside day-indecisive. S&P 500 (SPY) closed just shy of the week of April 29th 2011's high close -136.43. Russells 2000 (IWM) after its startling comeback last Thursday, closed unchanged on Friday. Some candlestick pattern scholars look at this as a potential reversal of the current trend (Bullish). Potential, in that there needs to be at least 1-2 days of more evidence that the bears are back in control. As we enter the new week, there are signs of exhaustion in many sectors, while others look as though they are about to kick into gear. Ever since Operation Twist, been watching for shifts in the "classic" relationships.
Subscribers: At this point QQQ, SPY and IWM all have positive pivots. That means if the indexes break S1 could be first sign of trouble or could just be some correction and sideways action in store.
ETFs:
GLD Positive Pivots so still a possible contender long, especially if the Middle East continues to broil.
XLF (Financials) 14.86 high of recent move and the 200 weekly moving average looms at 14.89. Exciting.
XRT (Retail) Swing longs Use the 10 DMA as a stop.
IBB (Biotechnology) Broke the 10 DMA and under 118 showing real signs of fatigue.
SMH (Semiconductors) Could be troublesome as it made new multi-month highs and closed on the intraday lows.
IYT (Transportation) Got hammered by news of deal between UPS and British firm TNT. But, with good pivot lineup, would still follow it above 94.30 and risk a full ATR to see what it's got.
IYR* (Real Estate) Have not written about this group in a while. Have been friendly since it crossed the 200 DMA a month ago. Now, after getting to 62.04 and backing off, it has found support at 60.00 and quite possibly ready for another stab at 2011 high 63.00 and beyond.
USO (United States Oil Fund) Got to 39.75, first target. Getting a tad overbought, so trail up those stops on the balance.
MOO (Market Vectors-Agribusiness) Watch this to clear recent highs 53.45. DOJI day and hammer candle on Friday. Like to see 52.70 hold.
TBT (Ultrashort 20+ Year Treasury Bonds) Long over 19.00 but needs to get back over 19.90 to see a convincing rate reversal.
Longs: At this point, market could correct through price or time. If time, hard to sit in positions at these higher levels. If price, could get costly. Therefore, tightening the risk on new entries and trailing stops on older ones. Note: Short-Term Swing means take off some at 1.5 ATRs and looking for 2-3 ATRs max.
SPG Positive Pivots. Been recommending this since early October at 114. Since, made a huge move and could be consolidating for another leg up to 141-142 area. Positive Pivots and tight risk 138.48. Day to Short-term Swing
CAT Consolidating at these higher levels. Positive Pivots. Provided it holds 113.00, above the recent highs could be good first to 2011 high 116.55 and possibly higher. Day to Swing
IDIX Positive Pivots. Provided 11.65 holds, has a gap to fill to 13.00 after the gap down early February. Through the gap could go to 14.00-15.00. Day to Short-term Swing
COST Got long around these levels and got out before it fell to the 70 EMA. Now want to see it clear 84.52 and hold 84.00. Then could see it firm to 87 and possibly 93.00 or better. Day to Swing
FSLR Gapped higher and has a hammer candle. Needs a second close conservatively above Friday's low 42.23 (risk) to confirm an island bottom. Positive Pivots at 43.34 which if opens above would consider a strong indication. Day to Swing
IBM Positive pivots. Like to see it hold 192.00 and get going with 194.90 finally taken out for a move to new highs. Day to Swing
HAL Has to clear 36.70 last week's high, then has the 160 EMA at 37.90. Next level to watch 40.50-41.00. Support to hold 35.50. Positive Pivots. Day to Mini
Honorable Mention: Must Clear: C (33.60) NFLX (122.95) Positive Pivots Opening Range Reversal:JCP* (Support 41.25) SFLY* (29.50 next resistance) SODA (39.09 support) POT (45.60 to hold) GS(Support 114.83 Has to clear 117.60) WFM (support 79.75)
Shorts:
NEM Negative Pivots at 59.86 and cannot clear 60.50 the 200 DMA. Under 58.06 could see drop to 57.25 then 53.00. Day to Short-term Swing
SOHU Could be on the verge of failing the 80 monthly moving average at 48.20 reversing a long term up trend (Won't know that until end of February). Already did break on the weekly and daily charts. Should not clear 51.20 and initial support now 49.50. Day to Short-term Swing
RVBD A good tech stock to go to if that group weakens. Could not get the 2 day confirm phase change over the 200 DMA which means has to break and close under 28.32 (the 200 DMA) first. Negative Pivots at 28.57, which for now, makes a really tight risk. If fails, Day to Swing.
Have a Great Holiday!