Evening Watch for Feb. 24th 2012

Mish Schneider | February 23, 2012

When Biotechnology (IBB) corrected, Commodities (GLD USO) took the lead. With Commodities still in favor (although ultimately begging for an interest rate hike which could take the kibosh out of this run) Biotechs led the charge again. Other sectors followed in suit. Now, it's up to Real Estate (IYR) and Financials (XLF) to hang tough for more upside.

S&P 500 (SPY) A nice accumulation day in volume. Back to positive pivots with 137.05 recent high

NASDAQ (QQQ) A weekly close over 63.89 and all scary candles for now go back into storage.

Russells 2000 (IWM) Aha! I knew I loved that 81.00 level. 83.33 its recent high.

ETFs:

GLD keep trailing up those stops. SLV-If long today, took some profit and now looking at today's low to hold

XLF (Financials) The 200 weekly moving average is RIGHT THERE! A close above-reversal of 5 year trend.

XRT (Retail) Swing longs-New stop tomorrow under 57.75

IBB (Biotechnology) Love when the numbers work so well! Stopped at the 10 DMA-a gap over today's high, real nice. Otherwise, a hold of today's low important.

SMH (Semiconductors) Held last week's low (34.10). Ended with a DOJI and over today's high-go for it!

IYT (Transportation) Back over the 50 DMA and want to see it stay there.

IYR (Real Estate) Counting on this sector, especially with new home sales number coming out higher.

IJR (Small Cap 600 Index) Could be forming a new base to blast off from with all time high 76.69

USO (United States Oil Fund) Subs-With 4 ATRs, use a chandelier exit from today's high unless it comes in higher.

MOO (Market Vectors-Agribusiness) Like to see 52.70 hold.

TBT (Ultrashort 20+ Year Treasury Bonds) I can't leave this alone since I am still looking at that island bottom. Perhaps I should just wait for 19.90 and be done with it.

Longs:

COST Still see this as basing with the close over Wednesday high today and positive pivots. Should hold 83.30 and take out 86.18 to see its way to new highs. Day to Swing

GS Tested and held the 200 DMA and with negative pivots must clear 116.67 R1 then has to get above 117.91 to continue up to 130 or higher. Risk 114.80. Day to Swing

PRU R1 61.57 to clear with risk today's low 60.38 and then 64.35 the 80 monthly moving average is next resistance. Day to Swing

SLG Positive pivots and back over the 10 DMA. Risk 74.75 and if clears 76.46, has some resistance at the month high77.85, but should stay firm and continue higher, especially if real estate ETF stays firm. Day to Swing

TSLA Over 35.00, looks like a base that goes back since December 2010 which will break with a close above that level. Could be good for 10.00. Risk today's low. Day to Swing

NFLX Never filled the gap since its earnings report even with all the news. Slope on the 50 DMA is moving up and with today's inside day and positive pivots, worth a shot with risk to under S1 111.35 to see if can going again. Day to Swing

Honorable Mention: CREE (Must clear R1 30.23-lines up perfectly with today's high) BA (Must clear 76.18) ONXX (Must hold 37.40) Positive Pivots Opening Range Reversal: PAY* CAT (Support 114.00 and like to see it clear 116.45) WTW (Through 80.00 should continue) NTAP (2 bottoms at 42.50, like to see 43.50 clear)

Shorts:

BTU Should not clear 36.06 and continue lower under today's low with next support 34.00 then 30.00.Day to Short-term Swing

VHC Should not clear 24.23 and since right on the 200 DMA, needs to gain momentum under the negatively sloped FTP to see 21.00. Will begin to get oversold on weekly. Day to Mini

Honorable Mention: AMZN (Should not clear 180.78) GOOG (Should not clear 609.14) TIF (needs to break the 50 DMA at 64.16)

Goodnight!