Evening Watch for Feb. 29th 2012

Mish Schneider | February 28, 2012

S&P 500 (SPY) Still very low volume which means the blow off rally has not happened yet. Subs-OR reversals now would be a gift.

NASDAQ (QQQ) Another low volume day with lots of traders aside. Not sure I would be loading up in this group right now, but if been in since we first talked about the phase change at the start of 2012, congratulations!!

Russells2000 (IWM) This is either hanging out giving traders ample time to get a clue and buy-or, it will be the kiss of death and the existing longs in other indexes will be unable to get to the exits fast enough. 83.33, its recent high, would see the last 3 weeks as good congestion for a move higher. If breaks, 81.00, the reverse.

ETFs:

GLD Caught its breath and did the 50 yard dash. Swing stop under the 10 DMA 170.50.

XLF (Financials)  It closed above 200 weekly moving average. But needs to end the week there.

XRT (Retail) Now in parabolic mode. Swing longs-New stop 58.40.

IBB (Biotechnology) 120.28 R1 to clear and 119.00 now number to hold.

SMH (Semiconductors) Got clearance above 34.65. Subs-An OR reversal would be great!

IYT (Transportation) Inside day. Over today's high, good follow.

IYR (Real Estate) Like this over today's high 60.81 provided 60 continues to hold.

USO (United States Oil Fund) After Monday exit, now 2 days correction and considering it as such unless it breaks and closes under the 10 DMA. Subs-Must clear R1 41.39.

XLE (Energy) 2 day correction but needs to clear today's high to get a signal long. Subs- NBL good one to watch

MOO (Market Vectors-Agribusiness) Still long. Overall chart patterns continues to indicate potential for more upside.

TBT (Ultrashort 20+ Year Treasuries) Not sorry we exited last week, but now, interesting bullish candle. The 50 DMA 18.81 which needs to cross.

Longs: So many to choose from-hardest part of my job in a great market is deciding which ones to feature. If you like a stock not listed, please tweet me and I will help you with the setup. And use Hotscans to help you find the ones that have volume and Opening Range breakouts.

Post Earnings: JOY scheduled to report before the open. Will watch for follow through.

SLG Held the 10 DMA and made the whole range in the first 30 minutes. Has positive pivots now at 75.79. Risk to under today's low good. Pushing the 80 monthly moving average (77.39) at the end of the month. Been consolidating over the last several weeks. Has potential to 2011 high 90.00 or better. Day to Swing

GOOG cleared the 50 DMA for an unconfirmed phase change to bullish. Tweeted long entry. Now, an opening range reversal would help risk, but if good, has gap to fill from January and then could continue higher. Day to Short-term Swing

AMGN Cleared the 10 DMA with a good looking candle and with positive pivots, candidate for an OR reversal but also has room over today's high to recent highs and higher. Risk now 67.30. Day to Swing

JCP Inside day and positive pivots at 41.26 with max risk today's low. Also pushing against the 80 month moving average at 43.38 but for now, like to see it also clear the 10 DMA at 41.84. Day to Swing

HAL (Narrowest Range in 43 days) Inside day. Risk the 10 DMA 37.03 and back over 38.00, could see another push higher to 40.65 and beyond. Day to Swing

CE Oversold and still in a bullish phase with a tight risk to the 50 DMA at 47.60. Also positive pivots at 48.41 with R1 48.77. The first resistance is the 10 DMA at 50.00 and if that clears recent high 52.59. Day to Swing

Honorable Mention: Must Clear: SLB* (79.54) ONXX (Inside day 39.05) CAT** (DOJI Must clear 116.27) TSLA (34.43) WFM (inside day, should clear today's high) Positive Pivots Opening Range Reversal: AGU CF BIDU COST EL IBM CREE Anyone see IMAX today?

Shorts:

 If IYT drops look at: CHRW and NSC both with negative pivots in negative phases.

FTI Cannot clear today's high and must break the 70 EMA under today's low after an inside day. Then could see drop to 48.00 next. Day to Mini

Honorable Mention: X (Must break S1) ATI (Must not clear 44.36) BTU (Must not clear 35.84) ACOM (Should not clear 24.12)

Goodnight!