I don't know about you all, but for me, these types of days are really hard to deal with. I like to be "active", see volume, get follow through and after gaps, trade what we call Opening Range Reversals. But, in retrospect, these days happen for a reason. In the indexes and in many sectors/groups, we are tackling but not yet clearing or reversing from the October highs. So, of course it's tough! S&P 500 is just one example. Trying the October high intraday and closing beneath without failing-well, that is probably really bullish-but with super light volume-who wants to be overexposed on the long side? And, if you are leaning towards the "market is tired" sentiment-the phase right now is positive-it would be awfully hard to overindulge in the "fade the market" as well.
S &P 500 (SPY) Closed just under the 10/27 high in an accumulation phase with positive sloping moving averages and a longer term positive phase intact. Subs-Positive pivots at 129.57
Russells 2000 (IWM) Still holding the 200 DMA and still struggling under the 65-weekly moving average. Worth watching if fails 75.90. And at this point, needs to close above 77.00
NASDQ (QQQ) I'll see your breakaway gap and raise you another breakaway gap! And a doji day to boot. I see no reason to be anything but optimistic at this point. Only caveat-the nasty October high-HAS TO CLEAR! Some important earnings coming up. Subs-Pivots positive
ETFs:
GLD 161.65 point to clear. 159 point to break-in the middle-stay away.
XRT (Retail) Next direction remains unclear as it tested but could got cross the trendline from October highs. Subs-Positive Pivots at 53.06 with a positive slope on the underlying 50 DMA. Still like this over last week's high 53.20 and would stand not look to short if corrects further from here.
XLF (Financials) 13.58 the price to hold for the gap to remain intact. Considering the round of earnings forthcoming, if it does, will take that as a positive sign for this sector. If gaps lower leaves a possible top against the 200 DMA in place (2 days to confirm that) than the October 27th and January 12th highs begin to look like ominous signals of a double top.
IYR (Real Estate) Barely cleared 57.89. Now want to see 57.75 hold.
IBB (Biotechnology) Here to remind you.
SMH (Semiconductors) Inside day. Holding the breakaway gap. Under 31.34 not a good sign, but if holds here, remains a great potential.
XLE (Energy) At this point, would look at a rally as a point to short. That changes only with 2 closes above the 200 DMA.
TLT (20+ Year Treasury Bonds) Back through 122 would be a decent signal that 124.50 is not too far away.
Longs:
PXP Is in a Bull phase but not a Condition 1. Has positive pivots at 36.41, with R1 and today's high 37.08 to clear. Risk is 35.23 the 50 DMA. See potential in this to 2011 high 41.96 and beyond. Day to Swing
ESRX A great example of how difficult trading was today. Gapped higher, had no OR breakout, has an OR low reversal and closed beneath that point but held R1. That means the risk becomes overnight if bought and held. Back above the 200 DMA but not the 65 weekly moving average. Pivots are positive at 50.01 with a clear risk to 49.46, S1. Want to see 51.15 the 65 weekly clear with then a possible run to 55 before earnings. Day to Short-Term Swing
MOS (Narrow Range 12) Held the 80 monthly moving average so far and trying to clear 55.25-highs from last week. Positive pivots at 55.53. Risk 54.25 reasonable for a swing. MiniS1 54.93. Let's see if it can get to 59.25 the 160 EMA. Day to Swing
PRGO On 12/22 made new highs at 104.70, then fell to the 50 DMA. Gapped again on 1/10, took a couple of days to digest, and today, had an end of day OR reversal against R1. Now, pivots positive at 98.09 with conservative risk 97.18 the 10 DMA. Would like to see a test of the recent highs. Day to Short-term Swing
VFC (Narrow Range 159) Sometimes, the greatest trades are the ones you think are going one way; then when that does not happen, you begin to see the opposite. Flexibility is a key to trading. Now, this basically had 3 inside days in a row (today it took out Friday high but marginally.) And with the narrowest range in 159 days and positive pivots at 132.53, seems long is the new way to look at this. Would risk no more than today's low and expect no more than 142-143. Day to Short-term Swing
Honorable Mention: Must Now Clear High or R1: JCP (on the 50 DMA, oversold must clear 34.03) X(28.11) COG* (O/S and if clears R1 67.78-returns above the 200 DMA) Pivots OR Reversal Candidates: EL DLR (NR 12) FCX NFLX BIIB (Inside day)
Shorts: Do not see too much set up right now
CTRP Negative Pivots at 24.18 must not clear 24.88 and if breaks today's low could see 20.00. Day to Mini
FOSL Inside day with neutral pivots at 87.23. Cannot clear 88.54. Ideally , would like to see this break S1 85.92 to see another test of the 10 DMA below at 81.75 or lower. Day to Short-term Swing
Goodnight!