Seems the market forgot to have its morning cup of joe since it began weak and then proceeded to drift higher with no real gusto. No bloodbath nor "in your face bears" type rally...milquetoast at best. Neither committed sellers nor panic abounds. With NASDAQ 100's inability to confirm the potentially powerful daily chart pattern we began this day with as bad news, for now making the opposite assumption-all good.
S &P 500 (SPY) Of the 3, this one most troubling since it failed to close above the 10 DMA, more like a dead heat with it. Subs-131.84 clears R1. Negative pivots and 3 days beneath them.
Russells 2000 (IWM) Did test and hold the 10 DMA at 78.45. Do not see any reason to be negative even if it trades lower. And 81.00 target not off the table. Subs-Pivots negative R1 79.51
NASDQ (QQQ) Closed higher even taking out Friday's high by a few ticks although could not rally above it. Subs-Pivots negative with R1 at 60.78 and last week's high 60.80. 59.65 today's low good to watch for support.
ETFs:
GLD 175.50-176.50 not unrealistic unless it breaks 167.05. Subs-took home a long miniswing position
XLF (Financials) Tested and held the 200 DMA although the longer term trend has not changed.Subs-Through 14.05 R1 should firm again.
XRT (Retail) Inside day. Subs-held S1 so now like to see the pivots hold at 55.50.
IBB (Biotechnology) Inside day Friday, DOJI day today. 114.15 support on the fast DMA and over 115.70 should still have more to upside.
IYT (Transportation) DOJI Hammer candle followed by a bullish engulfing pattern and now inside day. 97.00 totally in the cards. Subs-R1 95.31 to clear
XLE (Energy) Almost got ugly there for a second failing the 200 DMA and then coming back through to close above it. 73.17 has to clear unless it does close tomorrow under the 200 DMA in which case an inverted head and shoulders bottom possible. Subs-R1 71.52 will get me back in
TLT (20+ Year Treasury Bonds) 119.25 the 50 DMA should hold to see those December highs
Longs: More longs on list than you have been accustomed to seeing. Reason is to provide the best of the picks across the different sectors and groups. Therefore, make sure you check the corresponding ETFsfor the best performers.
MAKO 2 days under the Pivots at 36.55 with the 10 DMA at 35.77 a good risk. Since Condition 1 can buy ½ through the pivots and ½ through R1 at 37.02 which also clears today's high. If this opens firm and takes out R1 on the 5 minute opening range, a pattern I have been showing you on the videos. Could see 2011 high 43.00. Day to Swing
NTAP tested the 50 DMA and held with now 3 days under the pivots at 37.07. Risk today's low 36.20. Like to see it clear R1 37.93 as well. Then can resume move to 40.00 and perhaps beyond. Day to Swing
CAT Now has the 2 day correction we like to see on condition 1 stocks which means has to get above the FTP at 110.09 first then R1 111.11 next. Risk is today's low. Last May the high was 116.65. Swing traders are holding for that or higher. Day to Swing
JWN was a stock I featured during Phases and Forecasts that has not made a move particularly interesting until today. One of the few with positive pivots so good for an opening range reversal. 48.00 is the max risk for swing. Other traders can look for it to hold S1. All time high was made in 2007. 2011 high was 53.35. Day to Swing
RIO 2 days under the FTP and holding the 200 DMA at 59.58 with max risk the 10 DMA at 58.45. Has a gap above to 65.73, a good target if holds. Day to Short-term Swing
COV Through 52.85 see another leg up to 2011 high 57.65. For now, tight risk to today's low and with 2 inside days, should clear today's high. Day to Short-term Swing
JPM Wanted to put a financial stock on the list in case XLF firms over R1. This too needs to clear R1 37.34 and with earnings out of the way, would hold for swing with max risk today's low 36.36. This is to see if can eventually cross over the 200 weekly moving average and continue higher through 2012. Day to Swing
Honorable Mention: Must Clear a High or R1: MOS (56.80) HAL (36.97) HLF (57.53) IDIX(14.23) BA (74.45) APH (54.61) FCX (46.53) NSC (73.90 Oversold) Pivots OR Reversal Candidates:ROK* (Risk 74.98)
Shorts:
DDS Want to see this break S1 44.72 with risk to today's high to see a new leg down. Day to Short-term Swing
SHLD Negative pivots at 44.21 and must not clear 45.39. Must break 43.04 to see a retest of recent lows around 30.00. Day to Mini.
WLP two inside days. Negative pivots at 64.54 and should not clear today's high 65.05. Then could see 60.00 and possibly 57.00. Day to Short Term Swing
Honorable Mention: OR High Failure DECK (Risk 82.31) PAAS (must break S1 22.48)
Goodnight!