Volume wise, the week ended with a whimper and all three major U.S. indexes finished lower. Both theDow and the S&P 500 Index closed down 0.6% for the week and the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 0.5% on a weekly basis. For the year, the Dow rose 5.5%, the S&P 500 was flat, and the Nasdaq fell 1.8%. Obviously you all have been reading the words "mixed bag." And, if you look at the numbers in Europe and Asia, our mixed bag looks like a "Birken" bag.
As we begin trading in the US this year, some key reports due out this week:
Tuesday: December manufacturing.
Wednesday: November factory orders along with December U.S. motor vehicle sales.
Thursday: ADP will release its December employment figures, and ISM will release its December non-manufacturing data. Also, on Thursday, same-store sales data for December.
Friday: December unemployment rate and nonfarm payrolls are released.
Furthermore, the Fed will release the minutes on Tuesday from the Federal Open Market Committee's Dec. 13 meeting. Traders will be looking for some affirmation from the Fed that the U.S. economy is improving.
SPY Hovering near 1,260 once again, the 4th attempt to push through the 200-day moving average. Support to hold 123, underlying. To clear once and for all, 129.42, still some distance away. Otherwise, still a range bound market. Subs-pivots are slightly negative to neutral at 125.84. Through 126.33 will clear Friday high and R1, under 125.34, anticipate the lower levels.
QQQ: 55.45 first support to hold or could see 54.15 quickly. 56.18 then 56.42 the overhead areas to clear. Subs-Pivots positive.
IWM: 72.50 is a key area to hold before we start holding our breath at 70.58, last swing low on 12/14. Through 75.39, we once again watch the 200 day moving average Holy Grail now at 76.22. Subs-pivots neutral to slightly negative.
ETFs: Subs: In Thursday's webinar, I cover many of the groups/sectors and how they can possibly setup for this week.
GLD Before we say key reversal following the gap higher, first Friday's low must hold, secondly, it has room to overhead resistance at the 200 DMA 158.00.
XRT (Retail) Gorgeous trendline if blasts through 53.25 Otherwise, would not discount another drop closer to 51.00.
XLF (Financials) Inside day and closed at a pivotal area. 12.85 is the fast moving average and a hopeful place to hold. A lot of overhead resistance so let's start with 13.48, first biggie. Subs-Neutral pivots
IYT (Transportation) 90.55 must clear or after a failure to close over the 200 DMA, 87.20, the next underlying support to watch.
IYR (Real Estate) 58.20 important to clear and 55.20 to hold
IBB (Biotechnology) At the top of a channel. Subs-if it retreats not necessarily a failure and will have big eyes on one of the best areas to show leadership.
SMH (Semiconductors) More vulnerable than some other sectors/groups. Through 31.50 would impress. 29.75 next key area to hold with a break of the last swing low 28.69 trouble.
OIH (Oil Service) Must clear 116.44 and hold 113. Subs-positive pivots
Long Picks: Starting in cash. Again, since covered many setups in the webinar, here are just a few of the notable featured stock picks to narrow your focus. For now, looking at Day to short -term swings as time parameters since the indexes all remain in a trading range. Note: @mmmprem is the private twitter feed. Please make a point to setup a twitter and follow me there for real time alerts.
JWN Inside day. 48.00 max risk at this point. Need to see Friday's high 50.21 to clear since FTPs negative. 52.15 then 53.35 first overhead area of resistance.
CBST 37.75 max risk with negative pivots so must first clear Friday high 40.02. Over 40.49, especially on a closing basis and potential for another 10.00 move is there.
JPM Inside day with max risk 32.49. Positive Pivots 33.24. Through 33.69 could see 35.30 next overhead resistance.
WDC 30.00 max risk with positive pivots at 31.07. Over 32.70 levels, clears the 200 DMA and looks poised to 40.00.
AAPL Until this clears 408, still working an island top from October. Therefore, even with positive pivots, under 403.59, would not stay long and will begin to sniff out a possible failure.
Honorable Mention: Positive Pivots OR Reversal Candidates: WSM HOG BIIB UPS Negative Pivots must clear Friday high and R1: RAX ALTR JBHT JNJ EXPE (new pick)
Shorts: Many of the recent picks beginning this week with positive pivots even in the current bear phase. Will watch for new setups before entering short. Like the long picks, all can be Day to Short-Term Swing
IDCC Negative pivots at 43.76 an should not clear 44.19. Fast moving average support at 42.00 with 32.00 the major underlying support.
HLF Negative pivots 52.02 and should not clear 52.69. Then could see 46.50 next.
VFC Negative Pivots 127.53 and should not clear 128.70. Then could see 120.70 area next with 115.17 the 200 DMA.
UA Negative Pivots at 72.21 and should not clear 72.67, the 200 DMA for now. Then could see 69.69, 12/21 low before we call this a major breakdown.
Honorable Mention: BWA* (Cannot Clear 64.37) DRI (cannot Clear 45.86) RRC (has not broken the 200 DMA but Negative pivots at 62.27 and should not clear 63.28. The 200 DMA is 60.43.)GMCR GS
Goodnight!