Three days of digestion last week near the top of the recent trading range, which is potentially really exciting considering that the internals in conjunction with the pause show no particular fear in the market or a long term overbought condition. If you have been lulled into a coma (unless you traded Weight Watchers(WTW) or Netflix (NFLX) take that drip out of your arm because the market will awaken.
SPY: Inside day. Over 128.40 would not be surprised to see another leg up. Under 126.00 and fear will return. Subs-Positive pivots in all indexes.
QQQ: Ended the week holding the breakaway gap, but with overbought condition on the 2-Day RSI. Has room to the October high 59.20.
IWM: Last earnings season, many midcap stocks reported well bolstering this index to 76.97. That was under the 200 DMA. Now, with the 200 DMA at 76.11 and an inclining slope on the 50 DMA which the price is very near to, I still see this as having the best potential for a big blast through. With that said, take off the rose colored glasses and one can also see a panic should it break 73.00.
ETFs:
GLD Tested the 200 DMA and retreated first time around. So dull on Friday, hard to gauge what that means at these critical levels. Could be bottoming for sure; but could just as easily be just teasing the overhead resistance before selling off again. Subs-Pivots Positives so now must break S1 for the short-otherwise, could totally turn up.
XRT (Retail) Inside day. Last week talked about this failing a trendline breakout. Not one I would consider shorting. Would rather stand aside and consider buying over 52.70.
XLF (Financials) Inside day closing right beneath the 160 EMA. Subs-positive pivots.
IYT (Transportation) Subs-Positive pivots
IYR (Real Estate) Subs-Positive Pivots
IBB (Biotechnology) Took the lead in 2011 and stopped dead in its tracks at 110.
SMH (Semiconductors) Through 31.32 should see another leg up-but the volume has been at the lowest levels in a year. Need to see some conviction.
XLE (Energy) Subs-Neutral to positive pivots. Pushing against the 200 DMA. Good one to watch.
OIH (Oil Service) Filled the gap from a couple of days ago and held. Likes the 116 level now so watch that to break or looking at 121 next stop.
Longs: Lots to choose from; key is how the market opens given the 3 days of digestion. Earnings Season is here so please make sure you check the dates of any stock you are in for a swing trade.
WSM A bit whipsawish, but with positive pivots at 37.87, if can get a good price entry close to pivots, can use a tight risk to S1 37.17. Technically it is back in a warning phase, but a weak one since the 50 DMA is neutral. Overall, still see 40.00 possible and a close above that reason to hang with this. Day to Swing
COO Kind of a bizarre choice but it is in a consolidation in a tight range between 68.75 and 72.20 with positive pivots at 70.02. Provided the lower end of the range holds, the longer term trend still up, so could get a good entry and if breaks the 200 DMA, who knows? 2011 high 84.20 Day to Swing
SPG (Narrow Range 8) Inside day. 3 days under the pivots at 127.25 with max risk at 126.50 for now. Should clear 129.12 to look really strong over the 10 DMA. Began last week at an all time high of 132.29 and could get back there with next resistance 134 then 136-137. Day to Short-term Swing
CVX 3 days under the FTP at 108.69 and must hold 107.95. As a Condition 1 can buy ½ over the FTP and add over R1. 120.00 reasonable target. Day to Short-term Swing (Similar looking NBL)
NKE 2 inside days in a row and right near all time high (98.75) not overbought. Positive Pivots at 98.02 with risk 97.09 the 10 DMA. Reasonable next target 101-102. Day to Mini (Could leave tail if get 1.5 ATRS)
QCOR (Oversold) Very interesting looking chart since it gapped higher on 10/26, looked like it would explode, then after months of sideways action, sold off but never filled that gap. Now, has positive pivots at 39.14 with an oversold daily RSI, nearly one on the weekly as well. In the aftermarket on Friday, it traded to 40.30 with Friday's high 39.70 and R1 39.50 which means want to see it gap higher, then those are the ballpark areas to hold. Certainly has room to 50.00 should it gap and keep on going. Day to Swing
Honorable Mention: Must Now Clear High or R1: EL (113.13) Positive Pivots OR Reversal Candidates: CPX* DLR BA UPS EXPE ONXX* C SNDK
Shorts: Stuck with GMCR last week which yielded 1.5 ATRs for miniswing with a tail left for swing. Time to watch earnings dates coming up in many stocks.
IDCC Inside and doji day with negative pivots at 42.16 and should not clear R1 42.72. Then, could see test of recent lows 38.54 and possible the 200 weekly moving average 32.00. Day to Short-term Swing
BWA Under 64.67 should resume the bear move with negative pivots and a good risk at 65.43. Then, could see 54.59 recent spike low and possibly lower. Day to Swing
WHR Inside day negative pivots and should not clear 50.39. Could get back to 44.50 level and possibly down to 40.00. Day to Short-term Swing
XEC Negative pivots at 62.18 and must not break 63.70. The 200 weekly moving average is 60.00 and a close beneath would be first time since 11/25. Then could see November low 50.80. Day to Short-term Swing
Honorable Mention: OR High Failure RRC* (Must Not Clear 62.01) WYNN DRI
Have a great Sunday!