All in all good consolidation. S&P 500 performed best closing over last week's high in the final moments. Nice to see a confirmed change to a strong warning phase which means, back over the 200 DMA, well below the 50 DMA which in its declining slope indicates not all is necessarily rosy yet. Of course, anything can happen; but for now, consider the 200 DMA a pertinent line in the sand.
S&P 500 (SPY) Low volume and anticipate the same tomorrow. Will be looking for it to pull away from the 200 DMA with fervor or fizzle out and go back to its decline. Subs: Pivots positive. 139.75 is R1
Russell 2000 (IWM) The only index that did not break support intraday which turned out to be a clue for the firm finish. Subs: Remained in the channel featured on the video. Today's low good support still looking for 79.90-80.00
Dow (DIA) Cleared the fast moving average. Last week high remains resistance and 126.50 is important gap low to hold
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Held the 10 DMA and closed just shy of last week's high 63.87. A move above should take this up to 64.65 level. Support 62.96 Subs: AAPL 574.54 is the high to clear and 555 area to hold
ETFs:
GLD 167 the fast moving average is the area to hold.
SLV Inside day. The 50 DMA is very close indeed.
XLF (Financials) Cleared 15.63, now looking eagerly at the 50 DMA overhead. 15.45 still important support
IBB (Biotechnology) Into some resistance but good example of what a strong bounce off of the 200 DMA looks like
SMH (Semiconductors) Intel giving this group a lot of grief. Will look better over 31.05 but until then, letting it play out
XRT (Retail) with the strong warning phase, and the struggle to close green, unless it clears the 50 DMA watch for signs of fatigue and a clue as to overall market direction.
IYT (Transportation) Subs: Could be a whitecap move to the 50 DMA readying to sell off or if blasts through the 10 DMA, perhaps we can finally clear the 50 DMA once and for all.
IYR (Real Estate) Good volume move but can it clear the 200 DMA? Today's low now support to hold.
USO (US Oil Fund) Filled the gap left from yesterday's strong performance. If the situation in the M.E. calms, could see more downside
OIH (Oil Services) Inside day.
XLE (Energy) Closed back under the 200 DMA with an unconfirmed distribution phase. Gap low has to hold. Next resistance, 70.65
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) This relief today was one reason the market could stay firm over next few days.
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly.
NOTE: With short week, keeping list down for new swing longs to ones with the least amount of risk
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
AEM Slightly negative pivots with an inside day. Could try a long over 55.52 as a starter position. The 200 weekly overhead has to clear 56.33
C Slightly negative pivots but inside day and improved to condition 3. Strong upward sloping 50 DMA which is max risk for swing. Key is for it to clear 36.46.
MTB Returned over the 10 DMA. Max risk around 98.00. Has to clear 98.97
CERN Inside day with a bullish engulfing pattern. Improved in condition. Has to clear 78.36
RGR Has to clear 51.82 and stay there
Phase Change: MTH Inside day. Over today's high could see 37 and then the 50 DMA if this sector stays strong. Risk today's low WYNN After a fake breakout, then had a reversal. If holds over the 50 DMA will try again. AAP After hitting the 200 DMA has a bull flag forming with a breakout over 78.55
Shorts:
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
XEC Inside day. Has to break S1 and today's low and not clear 63.20
DG confirmed distribution phase. Cannot clear 48.32
ENDP Like to see it break under the 10 DMA.
FAST 41.15 is a tight risk to consider for a move to test recent lows or perhaps lower
VMW Should not clear the 10 DMA at 86.72
WLP Inside day. Cannot clear today's high
MJN Cannot clear 66.50
Category 6: White Cap-Having a 2-3 Day correction over the pivots. In a Negative Phase, Positive Pivots. Can sell an Opening Range High Failure if happens below R1 or previous day high whatever is higher and/or weakness if breaks S1 and prior day's lows
CMG Had a 4-day run, now if breaks S1 265.02 could get a new leg down
Bye for Now!
