Above is the link to Daytrading With Hotscans. After you log in with your MMM Prem or CSTS email and password, look for the "Live Trading Room" link on the right navigation. Then, Enter the "ORTrader" room. Click on that. Then, the password is daytrade when you see "Welcome to the MarketGauge Conference Center." Click on Log in again. Then OR Trader. Then, Click "here to Enter Room." A separate window should come up. Hit Next. You can type a question or comment to Geoff in the "Type Message Here" box and see what others are saying as well. Geoff posts charts of the trades he is following. He also posts a focus list every morning on the main page where you first entered-same right navigation. He lets you know when it is up in the chat box. Typically by 9:15 ET every morning the FL is on the site.
We have also posted the link to DTHS on my site as well.
Enjoy.
As we anticipated, last Friday was a quiet day and a positive one. SPY confirmed a bullish phase closing above the 10 day moving average, but not the adaptive. 133.92 is the next area for it cross with 133 the 50 day moving average, now support that has to hold to keep SPY in a bullish phase. There is a trendline that comes down from the highs made on May 2 which will cross over Friday's hi and the adaptive moving average thereby confirming that at least for the near term, a bottom is in place.
QQQ still lagging, touching but unable to cross the 50 day moving average of 57.49. Therefore, although SPY has a better chart formation, we must look to QQQ to not only cross and close above the 50 DMA but also fill a gap up to 57.69 and then cross the adaptive moving average of 57.79. The best we can say right now is we've held the last swing lows, got some decent volume last week which possibly confirms a bottom, but still not out of the woods since QQQ remains in a warning phase.
IWM closed above the 50 day moving average with an unconfirmed return to a bullish phase. If you recall last Thursday night I clarified that IWM has had only one accumulation day in volume. So two things must happen. First, we still need an up day with an accumulation of volume. And we will need two consecutive closes over the 50 day moving average.
DIA has an unconfirmed bullish phase and filled the gap up to 124.57 before retreating and closing very close to the 50 DMA at 124.18. As we know, SPY will not be enough to carry the whole market. Watch QQQ to tackle the 50 day moving average with good volume, IWM to stay above the 50 with some volume and ditto for DIA. In order for confidence to return fully to the market, all indexes must be lined up. Otherwise, the best we can say is that we're still experiencing mixed signals.
ETF's: XRT and IYR continued to follow through last week after our entry very close to the swing low of this recent pullback to the 50 day moving average. Swing traders should remain in their positions using trailing stops and taking profits according to the swing trading rules. Mini swing traders got 1.5 ATR's last week and would be watching for short-term trading patterns to reenter. SMH although back in a bullish phase, has yet to fill the gap up to 35.71 therefore this return is still questionable unless we continue and close above the adaptive moving average at 35.77. However swing traders who entered last week over 35.18 should continue to use the swing low 34.68 as a risk.
FXI gapped higher last Friday getting very close to the 50 day moving average. Again, swing traders should trail up stops and take advantage of rallies to lock in gains. Now over 44.45 I see no reason why this can't continue up to 46. One note-there is a small gap to fill from May 2 up to 45.01.
The swing trade in REE off of the 200 day moving average locked in 1.5 ATR's last Friday. Same instructions for swing traders, trail stops and set profit targets. Original target was the 50 day moving average of 13.24, that still seems reasonable.
GLD gave you a perfect entry last Friday over the two minute opening range high above the floor trader pivot and the gap. Closed up 1%. Now looking to see what happens up at 153.61 the all-time high that was made on May 2.
I also recommended that you take advantage of the cheap entry in XLF once it crossed 15.57. That stopped on Friday at the adaptive moving average at 15.78. Swing traders are now looking for it to cross above the adaptive moving average or consider a break even if it looks like it's going to fail that 200 day moving average.
USO** had two inside days in a row closing just beneath the adaptive moving average. Now, if you can cross above 39.85 and hold on a closing basis, looks like we should see a move up to test the 50 day moving average at 41.94. At this point, it should hold 38.95. If it doesn't, we could still see a retest and possible failure of the 200 day moving average at 37.89, especially since the slope of the 50 is still slightly negative.
OIH actually closed negative last Friday after it failed to get through its 50 day moving average. 150.17 is the adaptive moving average to hold and 156.10 is the 50 day moving average to penetrate. That's a wide range which means between, do nothing.
Picks: Geoff will have a focus list for you Tuesday morning. Here are a few of my own selection. Last Friday CF closed on new all-time highs after its 30 minute opening range breakout. That was a case where buying strength made sense. In the case of VMW, I also wrote to buy only if it made new highs. That never happened and it wound up closing down .6%. I am pointing this out because when a stock is near an all-time high, it makes sense to buy it on new highs for the follow through rather than on weakness in anticipation of it making new highs. At that point, it is indeterminable how severe the correction might be. But once it does make new highs, there is an area of clear support at the old high.
MA**after retracing all the way down to the 50 day moving average, I took my eyes off of it last week after a bullish engulfing pattern. An excellent entry would have been last Thursday above 275 with a very controllable swing risk. Now, it is extremely close to the all-time high made on May 3 at 286.80. Similar to the instructions for CF and VMW, now I would only buy on new highs and use the old high as a level of support to control risk. The only other option would be to buy it on a retracement to the 10 day moving average 278.80 with a tight risk. Day to mini.
NVLS**recommended an entry in this last week but it hasn't really gotten going yet. Stopped just beneath the 10 day moving average at 36.01. Now, I would want to see it hold 35.70 where S1 comes in otherwise I would start to become suspicious of its ability to rally. 35.85 is the floor trader pivot which it closed just above. At this point, if you are looking for a new entry, I would wait till it takes out the 10 day moving average which corresponds perfectly with R1 at 36 and use 35.70 as your risk. Still an incredible risk/reward if this is to rally. Day to swing
SWN**I bought this on Friday above the five-minute opening range high and got stopped out with a minimal loss under the low of the day. In this case, we were far enough away from the all-time high for me to control the risk. Now, if it comes in above the floor trader pivot 43.45 you have another shot with a stop under S1 43. I still think the overall chart formation is positive and with an all-time high of 44.69 just overhead, it affords you an opportunity to get in with a tight risk in anticipation of that high being taken out and it continuing on to new highs. Day to swing.
FL**it was incredible how much this stock respected the 30 minute opening range. It tested and bounced off of it several times but was never able to penetrate it. Now, if this opens higher above Friday's hi 24.95 I would follow it. You can use Friday's low 24.51 as a risk or if you prefer the floor trader pivot which comes in at 24.84. The high May 23 was 25.50. Since there is no way to measure a projected move after this period of consolidation, do it as a mini swing trade using the rules to guide you for profit targets. Day to mini. The one that did follow-through with the 30 minute opening range breakout is DSW which had a very similar chart formation.
AMZN had an inside day after a bullish engulfing pattern. Look for follow-through above last Thursday's high 196.45. The 10 day moving average comes in at 195.27 which is a good tight risk. Can go to fill the gap up to 202.36. Otherwise if it breaks Friday's low 193.50 would stand aside. Day to Mini
CREE**continues its basing action since my original recommendation to buy it at 39.50. This is a classic example of a swing trade that those of you who tell me that I don't recommend swing trades should look at. We got long this on May 11 and had you used the stop I have documented under the last swing low of 38.53 you'd still be in it. Now, it crossed the 50 day moving average. Plus it closed above 2 1/2 weeks of consolidation. Still has some hurdles like the 70 day exponential moving average above that 44.97, but after this base and period of consolidation, I'm reminding you of my original target of the gap that was left in March up to 48.79. Day to mini.
CSTR**broke out of its base several weeks ago, filled an old gap, and now has spent the last four weeks consolidating with the 50 crossing over the 200 day moving average last Thursday. Had an inside day last Friday. If it dips, you've got a wall of support at 49. If it holds you have a recent swing low at 51.43. And if it breaks above last week's hi 53.57 can use Friday's low 52.54 in anticipation that it will continue moving higher past the most recent high of 57.35 and possibly as high as 63-65. Day to swing.
Shorts:
FST**the 50 is about to cross beneath the 200 creating a Death cross. There is good overhead resistance at the 10 day moving average at 30.24. Therefore, can try going short beneath Friday's low 29.69 in anticipation of the possibility of much lower prices. On the weekly chart, next major area of support is at 24.80 than 22.85. If it comes in above 30.24 wouldn't necessarily go long but certainly would wait to see what happens since the death cross has not happened just yet. Day to swing.
SINA*there are a lot of people that I saw on twitter that touted this stock. But what I see is that it retraced up to the 50 day moving average, was incapable of closing above it and failed a trendline from the highs. Now, if it fails the 70 day exponential moving average at 108.85, it looks like a significant failure. I would not necessarily try to go short in the middle of this range unless you want to try it against the 50 day moving average at 116.86. Clearly this is a case where selling weakness makes more sense than trying to pick a top. And I'm simply giving you a head's up in case the market rolls over to the downside as this being a really good one to go to for weakness. Day to Swing
Similar story with INTU. This would be another one I would look to sell on weakness since it failed to cross the 50 day moving average. Day to Swing
Have a wonderful week! Will return June 6.
