What I wrote Monday evening... "The sectors that are best to watch to see where we go from here are Retail, Real Estate, Financials and Transportation" Yeah!
No more gaps to fill on the daily charts in the indexes and possibly more important is that the market closed under the gap fill areas.
S&P 500 (SPY) Back to an unconfirmed bullish in the new (yet definitely improved) indecisive market. If the low from the day before it gapped lower holds, 139.26, we could see believers coming back. No accumulation in volume which makes me worrisome.
Russell 2000 (IWM) Filled gap but could not either hold it or come close to the 50 DMA overhead. Subs: After a slingshot pattern 3/27 and a intact warning phase, hard for me to get too excited about a bull run right now.
Dow (DIA) The continuing bright spot once it gapped above the 50 DMA and kept going. But like the others, needs to stay now above 131.05 or becomes suspect
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) For me, it's now all about what happens here. A gap over today's high and confidence should be restored. Could also digest which is fine. But what we don't want to see is a break of 66.00 especially on a closing basis.
GLD Death cross. Subs: negative pivots. Provided it does not clear today's highs, will be looking for a short setup
XLF (Financials) 15.34 pivotal
IBB (Biotechnology) Ran to the 50 DMA. Has to clear it or still in warning.
SMH (Semiconductors) Could not fill the gap from 04/03 and one of the first places to go if market weakens again for short opportunities
XRT (Retail) Important indeed. Even more so now
IYT (Transportation) Once it gapped over the 50 DMA early on, all day follow through with some a small sell off end of day. Still real important to watch
IYR (Real Estate) 63.00 now the big overhead level to watch, the 2011 high
OIH (Oil Services) and XLE (Energy) Not oversold anymore and still below the fast moving average. Subs: Another good place to go for weakness
XLE (Energy)
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) A major reason we are not holding anything long for too long. A strong US dollar and firmer rates still a key to this market.
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Hard to establish new swing trades so close to earnings. Nothing listed that reports within next week unless noted.
Category 1: (Aloha) Positive Phase, Condition 1, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous Day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
N/A
Category 2: (Pipeline) Positive Phase, Condition 2-3, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
N/A
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means candidate for Opening Range Reversal, Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
SWI Must hold today's low
C Prefer reversal against 34.90. Should clear 36.00 to stay in trade
V Inside and narrow range day. Must hold today's low
WFM Could see another leg up if clears today high holds today low
FOSL Reports 4/20 Inside day above 131.09 R1 could see a pop. Must hold 129.50
PAY Inside day. Getting overbought on weekly. Must hold 54.00
WPI 67.60 needs to clear and hold
ALXN Has to hold 88.50
BBBY Has to hold today's low
CF Inside day Must hold today's low and clear today's high
Category 4: (Rip Tide) Oversold (2 or more days under FTP), Condition 1-4, Needs to clear R1, Risk previous day low unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
RHT Not quite oversold but narrow range day, 3 days under pivots. Must clear today high and hold today's low
YOKU Not oversold or a condition but in bull phase. Inside day, 2 days under pivots must clear 24.34 then today's high
Shorts: Watch GLD OIH XLE and stocks in those groups for weakness
VECO Positive FTPs Inside day has to break 27.24
SINA Should not clear 62.25
TIF Positive FTPs Cannot clear 67.45
MOS Positive FTPs Cannot clear today's high and must fail S1
Goodnight!