Inside day in S&P 500 (SPY), Russell 2000 (IWM), DIA. Nearly one in NASDAQ (QQQ), which actually held up pretty well considering the dump in AAPL. 2 occurrences of inside days last week, a really interesting short-term trading pattern during a time when the market is trying figure out if it wants higher or if more correction's in store. Volume patterns favor the bears, but volume is only one layer.
S&P 500 (SPY) Inside day and hovering on the 50 DMA which is actually inclining a bit in slope. SPY has to trade above 139.25 or break below 137.
Russell 2000 (IWM) Warning Phase intact but Friday did little to clarify which way the 3 week trading range will break
Dow (DIA) Holding the 50 DMA and ended with a hammer candle.
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Took out last Thursday's low on Friday by just a few ticks making it nearly an inside day. But, it is hanging onto to the 50 DMA for dear life which means a gap lower should be ominous for the whole market. Clearly, the world awaits AAPL earnings.
GLD If Friday's action was a rally after the death cross, very unimpressed. Unless it gaps up over 160, continues to look like more downside
XLF (Financials) Not a pretty week for a sector that has to hold up. On the 50 DMA so all is not lost yet
IBB (Biotechnology) Closed the week out in a bull phase, which is one positive sign
SMH (Semiconductors) Warning Phase which considering the failure at the gap fill, now not such a good sign. But, recent swing low at 33.82 could hold since it is now approaching oversold.
XRT (Retail) Inside day to end the week. Looking at the reversal pattern from the all-time high print, phase is bullish but not convincingly so until it tackles that high.
IYT (Transportation) Inside day to end the week and equally indecisive
IYR (Real Estate) Best performer! 63.00 the 2011 high to clear. But since it looks strong, even a correction would look ok provided it holds the 50 DMA
OIH (Oil Services) Once the aftermath of Halliburton's earnings simmered down, so did the price action in this ETF.
XLE (Energy) Attempted the 200 DMA, then substantially retreated.
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Looks in no hurry to rally.
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: No picks report this week, have possible slingshot patterns or are overbought
Category 1: (Aloha) Positive Phase, Condition 1, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous Day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
TDC Must hold 68.32 FTP at 69.05 and to stay long, clear Friday high
WYNN Not a classic condition 1 (10, 30, 50 DMAs stacked and sloped but 50 under the 200 DMA) Nice gap higher, must hold 128.48
Category 2: (Pipeline) Positive Phase, Condition 2-3, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
V Prefer to see Friday hi cleared and a hold of 120.45 max risk
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means candidate for Opening Range Reversal, Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
EL Only consider a reversal with max risk 63.00
PNC Reversal only against Friday low
ACN Must hold Friday low and clear the 10 DMA
LULU Must hold Friday's low and ok with buying strength
CF 185.62 max risk-ok either on strength or reversal
ROST Must hold 59.20 for swing risk. Friday low for mini or day risk
CREE Inside day must hold 30.00-strength ok
MNST Like to see Friday low hold
WFM Must hold Friday low
Category 4: (Rip Tide) Oversold (2 or more days under FTP), Condition 1-4, Needs to clear R1, Risk previous day low unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
JWN Not oversold, must hold Friday low, needs to clear Friday high
AXP Not oversold, Condition 4 Inside day. Must hold 57.00 and clear Friday high
KSS (Not a condition or oversold) Must clear Friday high, hold 50.00
FOSL Not oversold. Must hold 131.00
Shorts: Day to Swing Trades. Check earnings dates although no picks report this week-all in Bear Phase and not oversold
MUR Cannot clear 54.33 since pivots slightly positive. S1 53.06
SLV or AGQ Cannot clear Friday's high and break Friday's low. Next support 25.00 SLV
CNQ Cannot clear 32.68 and should break S1
ANF Now positive pivots. Cannot clear Friday's high, must break Friday low and S1
BTU Slightly positive pivots, must break S1
JOY Should not clear 75.68
MOS Must break Friday low
Have a great Sunday!
